Question

Difficulty: Very hardEvaluating Argument Strength and Credibility

Historically, historians attributed the rapid decline of the classic Maya civilization in the ninth century CE primarily to catastrophic megadroughts. Recently, however, archaeologist Dr. Marcus Thorne has proposed that systemic agricultural degradation, rather than climate shift alone, was the decisive driver. Thorne argues that the Maya’s intensive terracing and slash-and-burn farming depleted topsoil nutrients, initiating a feedback loop of falling yields and social unrest. To support this claim, Thorne points to soil core samples from the Copán Valley showing a dramatic decrease in maize pollen and a concurrent rise in bracken fern spores—a weed that thrives in depleted, acidic soils—dating to approximately 820 CE. Critics of Thorne’s thesis argue that the Copán Valley was an outlier with unusually fragile soil, and that regional climate models still show that a multi-decade drought occurred during the same period, which would have suppressed crop yields regardless of soil health.

Based on the passage, which of the following discoveries would most directly undermine Dr. Thorne's argument regarding the primary cause of the agricultural decline in the Copán Valley?

  1. A
    Evidence that neighboring Maya cities in regions with resilient volcanic soils did not experience a decline in maize yields during the ninth century.
  2. B
    Historical records showing that Maya farmers in the Copán Valley abandoned maize cultivation and transitioned to cultivating drought-resistant tubers by 850 CE.
  3. Soil core samples indicating that the rise of bracken fern spores in the Copán Valley occurred decades prior to the implementation of intensive terracing and farming.Answer
  4. D
    A revised climate model indicating that the ninth-century megadrought was slightly less severe in the Copán Valley than in the northern Maya lowlands.

Answer

Soil core samples indicating that the rise of bracken fern spores in the Copán Valley occurred decades prior to the implementation of intensive terracing and farming.
The correct answer is correct because soil core samples showing that bracken fern spores—a marker of soil depletion—were already present decades before the introduction of intensive terracing and farming directly invalidates the chronological sequence required for Dr. Marcus Thorne's cause-and-effect argument. If the indicator of soil degradation preceded the agricultural practices blamed for causing it, then those practices cannot be the primary cause of the degradation.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze Dr. Thorne's central argument and the evidence supporting it.
Thorne argues that intensive farming (cause) led to soil depletion, evidenced by a drop in maize pollen and a rise in bracken fern spores (effect) around 820 CE.
Establishing the proposed causal chain is necessary to evaluate which finding would undermine it.
2
Evaluate the chronological relationship between the cause and the effect in the correct option.
If bracken fern spores (the effect) rose before intensive farming (the cause) began, the causal link is severed.
A cause must chronologically precede its effect; showing the effect occurred first directly disproves the causal claim.
3
Differentiate the correct option from the distractors by assessing their impact on the core thesis.
The other options either support the thesis (resilient soils in neighboring cities), describe post-collapse adaptations (tubers in 850 CE), or fail to weaken the soil degradation model (milder drought).
Confirming that only one option weakens the primary causal claim ensures the correct answer is uniquely valid.

Key Concept

Evaluating the strength of causal arguments by verifying chronological order and logical consistency of evidence.
Rate this question