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Question

Difficulty: MediumThe End of the Cold War

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Estimate, "Soviet Policy Toward the West Under Gorbachev," 1988.

"The Soviet Union is facing its most severe economic stagnation since the post-World War II reconstruction era. Stagnant growth, systemic industrial inefficiencies, and a widening technological gap with the United States have forced the leadership to recognize that the USSR can no longer sustain both its massive military expenditures and its extensive foreign commitments. General Secretary Gorbachev's domestic programs of *perestroika* (restructuring) and *glasnost* (openness) represent an urgent attempt to modernize the Soviet administrative and economic system. To secure the international stability and economic resources necessary for these internal reforms, Soviet foreign policy is shifting toward diplomatic compromise and major arms control agreements with the West."

Which of the following developments during the late 1980s best supports the main argument of the excerpt?

  1. The Soviet decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and allow political reforms to proceed in Eastern EuropeAnswer
  2. B
    The unilateral disarmament of the Soviet nuclear arsenal in response to the United States' development of the Strategic Defense Initiative
  3. C
    The expansion of Soviet financial and military support to socialist revolutions in Latin America to offset domestic losses
  4. D
    The immediate privatization of all state-owned industries and the adoption of an unregulated free-market economy

Answer

The Soviet decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and allow political reforms to proceed in Eastern Europe
The correct option is supported by the historical events of the late 1980s, where the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Afghanistan (completed in 1989) and refused to intervene militarily to uphold communist regimes in Eastern Europe. These actions directly demonstrate the shift described in the intelligence report: scaling back costly foreign commitments to focus resources on urgent domestic economic and political restructuring.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the provided historical source to identify the core argument.
The 1988 CIA National Intelligence Estimate argues that severe economic stagnation and systemic inefficiencies forced Soviet leaders to reduce military spending and foreign commitments to prioritize domestic reforms (*perestroika* and *glasnost*).
Understanding the document's premise is essential to identifying which historical action matches the described policy shift.
2
Evaluate the options to find a historical development that demonstrates the reduction of foreign commitments and diplomatic compromise.
The Soviet withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan and the decision not to militarily suppress the democratic movements in Eastern Europe (such as in Poland and East Germany) directly align with the policy of reducing external burdens.
This matches the historical evidence of the late 1980s with the strategic shifts predicted in the intelligence report.
3
Verify that incorrect options represent historical inaccuracies or misconceptions.
Options describing unilateral disarmament, expanded foreign interventions, or immediate transition to unregulated capitalism are historically inaccurate and contradict the document's analysis.
Ensures the selected key is the only historically valid and logically consistent option.

Key Concept

The role of Soviet internal economic and political crises, along with diplomatic engagements, in bringing about the end of the Cold War.
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Topics

The End of the Cold War

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