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Difficulty: MediumLogical Arguments and Causal Relationships

A corporate governance study monitored 60 multinational technology firms over a three-year period to evaluate the impact of introducing automated AI hiring software for mid-level managerial positions. The study observed that firms adopting the AI software experienced a 25 percent increase in annual manager turnover. Based on this observation, the lead researcher concluded that automated AI screening causes increased manager attrition because candidates selected by AI lack interpersonal compatibility with existing teams. Which of the following statements, if true, weaken the lead researcher's causal conclusion? Select all that apply.

  1. Firms experiencing elevated manager turnover prior to the study were significantly more likely to adopt the automated AI hiring software to streamline recruitment.Answer
  2. B
    The increased manager attrition rates prompted affected firms to substantially expand their internal human resources departments.
  3. Simultaneously with adopting the AI software, participating firms introduced stricter quarterly performance targets that resulted in higher rates of performance-based terminations.Answer
  4. D
    Non-managerial staff turnover remained entirely stable across all 60 multinational technology firms throughout the three-year monitoring period.
  5. E
    The automated AI hiring software reduced the average time required to fill vacant managerial positions from 45 days to 12 days.

Answer

The statements establishing selection bias in pre-existing high turnover firms and introducing an alternative explanation through stricter performance targets both weaken the causal conclusion.
The causal claim is that AI hiring software causes increased manager turnover due to team incompatibility. The option noting that high-turnover firms selectively adopted the AI software demonstrates reverse causality and selection bias, showing that turnover predated software adoption. The option noting that firms concurrently instituted stricter performance targets introduces a confounding variable that provides an alternative explanation for the increased terminations. Both statements undermine the researcher's conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the causal claim and proposed mechanism in the stem
The researcher claims that automated AI hiring software causes increased manager attrition due to poor interpersonal compatibility of AI-selected candidates.
Understanding the precise cause and effect is necessary to evaluate weakening conditions.
2
Evaluate statements for alternative causal directions or confounding variables
Showing that high turnover existed prior to adoption (reverse causality) or that stricter performance targets caused higher termination rates (confounding variable) invalidates the direct causal link.
Causal conclusions are weakened when reverse causality or confounding third variables explain the observed correlation.

Key Concept

Evaluating Causal Arguments and Weakening Causal Claims
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Topics

Logical Arguments and Causal Relationships

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