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Difficulty: Very hardWeakening Arguments

To reduce municipal carbon emissions and alleviate gridlock, City X introduced a daily congestion toll on private passenger automobiles entering its commercial core during morning peak hours. Analysts argue that this policy will successfully decrease overall motor vehicle traffic along the primary access corridors leading into the commercial core by at least 25 percent. Their reasoning is that the added financial cost will compel a significant portion of daily automobile commuters to switch to the city's underutilized suburban rail network. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the analysts' argument?

  1. A
    A municipal survey conducted prior to the toll's implementation indicated that over 30 percent of private automobile commuters expressed a willingness to use public transit if driving costs increased.
  2. Because the toll applies exclusively to private passenger automobiles, commercial delivery fleets and ride-hailing services plan to sharply increase peak-hour trips along those same access corridors to meet shifted consumer demand.Answer
  3. C
    Suburban municipalities surrounding City X that enacted similar congestion pricing schemes five years ago observed a gradual rise in local residential property values near rail stations.
  4. D
    The net revenue collected from the congestion toll will be insufficient to fully offset the municipal government's projected annual budget deficit for road maintenance.
  5. E
    Standard public transit fares across City X are scheduled for a minor, routine inflation adjustment at the end of the upcoming fiscal year.

Answer

The argument is most seriously weakened by the statement that commercial delivery fleets and ride-hailing services will increase peak-hour trips along the access corridors, replacing reduced private cars with other motor vehicles.
The correct answer demonstrates that while private passenger cars may decrease due to the toll, another category of motor vehicles—commercial fleets and ride-hailing cars—will significantly increase operations on the exact same access corridors. This directly invalidates the analysts' assumption that reduced private automobile commuter traffic guarantees a 25 percent drop in total motor vehicle volume.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the main conclusion and premises.
Conclusion: Overall motor vehicle traffic along primary access corridors leading into the commercial core will decrease by at least 25%. Premise: A daily toll on private passenger cars will cause commuters to switch to suburban rail.
Deconstructing the argument isolates the leap between private car commuter behavior and total vehicle traffic volume.
2
Identify unstated assumptions in the argument's logic.
The argument assumes that private passenger vehicles are the sole major contributor to traffic volume on those corridors, or that decrease in private vehicles will not be replaced by other types of vehicular traffic.
Weakening questions require finding new information that shatters an unstated assumption.
3
Evaluate option impacts against the core assumption.
Showing that exempt vehicle categories (delivery fleets and ride-hailing cars) will increase trip frequency along the exact same corridors directly counteracts the projected net traffic reduction.
Demonstrating an offsetting surge in non-tolled motor vehicles directly breaks the link between fewer private cars and lower overall corridor traffic volume.

Key Concept

Evaluating Causal and Extrapolation Arguments by Identifying Offsetting Alternative Factors
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Weakening Arguments

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