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Difficulty: Very hardIdentifying Argumentative Strategies and Methods of Reasoning

Mayor: To revitalize our city's commercial district, we should eliminate municipal parking fees. When our neighboring city, Oakhaven, abolished its parking fees three years ago, retail revenue in its downtown sector increased by 20 percent over the subsequent two years.

City Analyst: However, during that same two-year period, Oakhaven completed a major light-rail line connecting its suburban residential areas directly to downtown, while our city has made no transit improvements. Therefore, eliminating parking fees alone will not produce the outcome you predict.

Which of the following best describes the method of reasoning used by the City Analyst in responding to the Mayor?

  1. A
    Mistaking an intermediate conclusion about municipal infrastructure for the primary premise of the opposing argument.
  2. B
    Rejecting an analogical argument on the grounds that the two situations share surface-level infrastructural features.
  3. Pointing out an unaddressed confounding factor in a cited precedent to challenge a causal inference.Answer
  4. D
    Dismissing a proposed policy by showing that its implementation will generate counterproductive side effects.
  5. E
    Refuting a general principle by offering a counterexample that directly contradicts the initial premise.

Answer

The argument proceeds by pointing out an unaddressed confounding factor in a cited precedent to challenge a causal inference.
The Mayor infers a direct causal link between abolishing parking fees and increasing downtown retail revenue based on Oakhaven's experience. The City Analyst counters by revealing that Oakhaven simultaneously implemented a major transit project (light-rail), which serves as a confounding variable. Pointing out this alternate cause undermines the Mayor's claim that parking fee removal alone was responsible for Oakhaven's success or that it will work locally.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the Mayor's argument structure
The Mayor argues that eliminating parking fees caused Oakhaven's 20% revenue growth, inferring that doing the same locally will produce a similar result.
Identifying the author's premise, conclusion, and underlying logic is necessary before assessing the response.
2
Analyze the City Analyst's response strategy
The Analyst introduces a second major event in Oakhaven occurring during the exact same timeframe—the light-rail line completion.
This alternative factor provides an plausible alternate cause for Oakhaven's revenue growth.
3
Match the strategy to abstract structural language
By introducing the light-rail system, the Analyst demonstrates that Oakhaven's success cannot be definitively attributed solely to parking fee elimination, thus exposing a confounding factor in the Mayor's comparative argument.
This abstract description accurately encapsulates challenging a causal claim via a confounding variable in empirical evidence.

Key Concept

Identifying Argumentative Strategies and Methods of Reasoning
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Identifying Argumentative Strategies and Methods of Reasoning

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