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Question

Difficulty: MediumWeakening Arguments

To revitalize downtown retail commerce, the city of Vaelen converted a five-block stretch of Main Street from a vehicle-accessible thoroughfare into a pedestrian-only zone. City officials reasoned that eliminating car traffic would encourage visitors to spend more time browsing local shops, thereby increasing total retail sales in the district. However, three months after the conversion, total retail sales along Main Street were 15 percent lower than during the same three-month period last year. Consequently, city officials concluded that the pedestrian zone failed to attract shoppers and directly harmed retail commerce. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the city officials' conclusion?

  1. A
    Several boutique shop owners on Main Street reported that parking availability on adjacent side streets decreased significantly after the conversion.
  2. During the three-month period following the conversion, overall retail sales throughout the entire city dropped by 35 percent due to a major regional economic downturn.Answer
  3. C
    Suburban shopping malls located outside the city limits experienced a modest increase in customer traffic over the past year.
  4. D
    The city council originally planned to install additional outdoor seating and greenery along the promenade but postponed those physical improvements until next year.
  5. E
    Eliminating vehicle traffic on Main Street led to a measurable reduction in ambient air pollution levels within the downtown district.

Answer

The argument is most weakened by establishing that citywide retail sales fell by 35 percent during the same period, showing that Main Street actually outperformed the regional trend.
The conclusion asserts a direct causal relationship: the pedestrian conversion caused the 15 percent drop in retail sales. Showing that overall citywide retail sales plunged by 35 percent during the exact same timeframe provides crucial baseline context. It demonstrates that sales on Main Street actually declined far less than expected given the severe regional downturn, which strongly suggests the pedestrian zone buffered Main Street from a worse fate rather than causing the decline.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the main conclusion and premises.
Premise: Main Street sales fell 15% after pedestrian conversion. Conclusion: The conversion failed to attract shoppers and directly caused the sales decline.
Understanding the precise causal link asserted by the author is necessary to weaken it.
2
Identify the unstated assumption in the author's causal leap.
The author assumes no external factor (such as a broader economic slump) was responsible for the 15% drop in sales.
A weakening answer choice will often present an alternative cause or show that the baseline performance was affected by outside variables.
3
Evaluate the choices to find evidence undermining the assumed cause.
Showing that citywide retail sales dropped 35% demonstrates that Main Street's 15% drop was actually a relative success, undermining the claim that the pedestrian zone harmed commerce.
If the broader market fell much more sharply, the pedestrian zone likely helped protect Main Street from an even steeper decline.

Key Concept

Causal Fallacy and Baseline Confounding Variables
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Topics

Weakening Arguments

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