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Question

Difficulty: EasyWeakening Arguments

A city recently installed high-intensity LED streetlights in its commercial district to reduce night-time traffic accidents. Over the six months following the installation, the number of recorded night-time traffic accidents in the district dropped by 25 percent. City officials concluded that the improved visibility from the new LED streetlights was directly responsible for the reduction in traffic accidents. Which of the following statements, if true, most seriously weakens the city officials' conclusion?

  1. A
    Surveys conducted after the installation indicated that drivers found the commercial district's roads much easier to navigate at night.
  2. Three months ago, the city deployed a significantly higher number of traffic police patrols in the commercial district during night-time hours.Answer
  3. C
    High-intensity LED streetlights installed in residential neighborhoods of nearby cities led to an increase in public complaints about light pollution.
  4. D
    The commercial district experienced a higher volume of daytime traffic than night-time traffic both before and after the streetlights were installed.
  5. E
    The new LED streetlights consume significantly less electricity to operate than the traditional lighting fixtures they replaced.

Answer

The statement regarding the deployment of significantly higher numbers of traffic police patrols during night-time hours most seriously weakens the argument by providing an alternative cause for the reduction in traffic accidents.
The argument concludes that the new LED streetlights directly caused a 25 percent reduction in night-time accidents. To weaken a causal conclusion, introducing an alternative cause for the same effect is effective. The statement introducing increased traffic police patrols during night-time hours provides an alternative explanation for why accidents declined, casting doubt on whether the streetlights were responsible.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the conclusion and premise of the argument.
Premise: Night-time traffic accidents dropped by 25% after installing LED streetlights. Conclusion: Improved visibility from the LED streetlights directly caused the reduction in accidents.
Understanding the causal claim is essential before evaluating potential weakeners.
2
Determine what kind of statement would weaken a causal conclusion.
An alternative explanation for the drop in accidents (e.g., another simultaneous intervention) will weaken the claim that streetlights were the direct cause.
Causal arguments are vulnerable when another plausible cause co-occurs with the observed effect.
3
Evaluate the choices to find an alternative cause or flaw.
The statement about increased police patrols introduces a concurrent change that could independently account for reduced accident rates.
Increased enforcement deters risky driving behaviors, offering a competing explanation for the outcome.

Key Concept

Weakening Causal Arguments via Alternative Causes
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Topics

Weakening Arguments

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