Examkin

Question

Difficulty: MediumAssumptions in Causal Arguments

Last year, the city government installed a 'smart' traffic light system designed to prioritize pedestrian crossings on its primary downtown commercial avenues. In the twelve months since the installation, retail businesses located along these avenues have reported a 30 percent increase in pedestrian foot traffic and a correspondingly significant rise in sales. A city planner concludes that the new traffic light system directly caused this increase in downtown commercial activity by making the avenues substantially more pedestrian-friendly.

Which of the following are necessary assumptions upon which the city planner's argument depends? Select all that apply.

  1. The city did not simultaneously open a major public transit hub near these downtown avenues that brought a large influx of new commuters to the area.Answer
  2. Pedestrian foot traffic along the downtown avenues was not already experiencing a rapid upward trend immediately prior to the installation of the new traffic light system.Answer
  3. C
    The newly installed smart traffic light system is the most effective pedestrian-management technology currently available to city planners.
  4. D
    Every retail business located along the downtown avenues experienced at least some increase in sales following the installation of the traffic lights.
  5. E
    The absolute number of pedestrians visiting the downtown avenues is now greater than the number of pedestrians visiting any other commercial district in the city.

Answer

The argument requires assuming that there was no simultaneous alternative cause for the increased foot traffic (such as a new transit hub) and that the increase was not merely the continuation of a pre-existing upward trend.
The city planner's argument concludes a direct causal relationship from a chronological sequence. For this causal claim to hold, the argument must implicitly assume that alternative explanations for the rise in foot traffic are false. The correct answers rule out two major alternative explanations: a simultaneous external cause (a new transit hub) and a pre-existing trend that would have occurred regardless of the new traffic lights. Negating either of these statements would introduce a highly plausible alternate cause, thereby severely weakening the planner's causal conclusion.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the argument's premises and main conclusion.
Premise: Traffic lights were installed, followed by a 30% increase in foot traffic. Conclusion: The traffic lights directly caused the increase.
Deconstructing the argument is necessary to map the logical gap between the evidence and the claim.
2
Analyze the reasoning flaw or gap.
The planner is assuming that a chronological correlation (A happened, then B happened) guarantees absolute causation (A caused B).
Causal arguments based on observational data inherently contain logical gaps regarding alternate causes and pre-existing conditions.
3
Apply the Negation Test to candidate options to find necessary assumptions.
Negating the option about the transit hub introduces a fatal alternate cause. Negating the option about pre-existing trends introduces a fatal alternate explanation. Negating the other options does not destroy the argument.
An assumption is strictly necessary if its logical opposite causes the argument's conclusion to fail entirely.

Key Concept

Assumptions in Causal Arguments
Estimated Time:1m 45s
Rate this question

Topics

Assumptions in Causal Arguments

More questions from this topic