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Difficulty: MediumApplying the Negation Technique

Supply chain analyst: In response to recent component shortages, our manufacturing firm is considering shifting from a 'just-in-time' inventory system to stockpiling critical parts. Management believes this shift will prevent the production halts currently caused by sudden supplier delays. However, adopting this new system will not actually increase our overall production reliability. The massive warehouse space required to stockpile these parts will displace our in-house quality-assurance facilities, forcing us to outsource quality control to third-party labs, which are known for their unpredictable turnaround times.

Which one of the following is an assumption required by the supply chain analyst's argument?

  1. A
    The delays caused by the third-party quality-assurance labs will be more severe and more frequent than the production halts currently caused by supplier delays.
  2. B
    The manufacturing firm cannot acquire additional warehouse space off-site to stockpile critical parts without altering its current facilities.
  3. The unpredictable turnaround times at the third-party quality control labs will be disruptive enough to prevent a net increase in the firm's production reliability.Answer
  4. D
    The third-party quality-assurance labs will struggle to maintain the same level of testing accuracy that the firm achieved with its in-house facilities.
  5. E
    Any third-party lab the firm uses will experience unpredictable turnaround times on every single batch of parts they test.

Answer

The assumption stating that the unpredictable turnaround times at the third-party labs will be disruptive enough to prevent a net increase in production reliability.
The correct option provides the logical bridge essential for the argument to function. By applying the negation technique, we transform the statement into its opposite: 'The unpredictable turnaround times at the third-party quality control labs will NOT be disruptive enough to prevent a net increase in the firm's production reliability.' If this is true, then overall production reliability WILL experience a net increase. This logically destroys the analyst's conclusion that adopting the new system 'will not actually increase our overall production reliability.' Therefore, the assumption is strictly necessary.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the argument's conclusion and primary premise.
Conclusion: Adopting the stockpiling system will not increase overall production reliability. Premise: The system displaces in-house QA, forcing the use of third-party labs with unpredictable turnaround times.
Deconstructing the argument is necessary to spot the logical gap.
2
Identify the logical gap.
The analyst assumes that the new problem (unpredictable QA turnaround times) will offset the solution to the old problem (supplier delays) enough that reliability will not improve.
Recognizing the unstated connection helps anticipate the correct necessary assumption.
3
Apply the negation technique to candidate answers.
Negating the correct statement yields: 'The unpredictable turnaround times will NOT be disruptive enough to prevent a net increase in reliability.'
The defining characteristic of a necessary assumption is that its negation destroys the argument's conclusion.
4
Evaluate the impact of the negated statement on the conclusion.
If the new delays are not disruptive enough to prevent a net increase, then reliability will indeed increase. This directly contradicts the analyst's conclusion, confirming it is required.
This proves that the original statement is strictly necessary for the argument to hold together.

Key Concept

Applying the Negation Technique
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Topics

Applying the Negation Technique

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