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Difficulty: EasyWeaken

Urban Planner: Last spring, the municipal council planted 500 native oak saplings across northern district parks to reduce summer ground temperatures. Recent satellite thermal scans revealed that average surface temperatures in these parks were two degrees Celsius lower this summer than during the previous summer. Therefore, planting the oak saplings was directly responsible for cooling the northern district parks.

Which of the following statements, if true, undermine the urban planner's conclusion? (Select all that apply)

  1. An unusually persistent regional weather pattern produced increased cloud cover and frequent rainfall that lowered summer temperatures throughout the entire metropolitan area.Answer
  2. B
    Nearby parks in adjacent districts where no trees were planted recorded identical or slightly higher surface temperatures than the previous year.
  3. The newly planted saplings were immature and produced negligible canopy coverage, while the city installed extensive fabric shade canopies across the same parks earlier this spring.Answer
  4. D
    The thermal sensors on the satellite that scanned the parks had a technical calibration error that distorted the previous year's baseline temperature readings.
  5. E
    Municipal maintenance crews spent substantially more funding watering the oak saplings than they spent on maintaining existing park vegetation.

Answer

The statements that undermine the argument are the statement introducing regional weather anomalies as an alternate cause and the statement attributing the cooling effect to newly installed shade canopies instead of immature saplings.
The argument concludes that planting oak saplings directly caused a two-degree temperature drop based merely on a before-and-after correlation. The statement citing citywide cloud cover and heavy rainfall undermines this conclusion by providing a broad meteorological alternative cause that accounts for the cooling across the entire area. Similarly, the statement noting that the saplings were too small to create canopy shade while fabric shade sails were installed demonstrates that the proposed cause was physically incapable of producing the effect and points to a distinct, concurrent cause.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the conclusion and supporting evidence in the stimulus.
Conclusion: Planting the oak saplings directly caused the cooling. Evidence: Saplings were planted last spring, and temperatures this summer were two degrees lower than the previous summer.
Isolating the core causal claim is essential for evaluating weaken choices.
2
Evaluate potential logical vulnerabilities in the causal link.
The author assumes that the correlation between planting trees and the observed temperature drop implies direct causation, ignoring other possible explanations for the cooling.
Weaken questions on causal arguments frequently succeed by introducing viable alternative causes or showing the presumed cause was ineffective.
3
Select all statements that provide alternative explanations or sever the causal link.
The statement detailing citywide cloud cover and rain explains the lower temperatures through regional climate conditions. The statement about immature saplings and fabric shade sails shows the saplings were functionally incapable of cooling and provides a concrete alternative mechanism.
Both statements independently demonstrate that the observed cooling could have occurred without the saplings causing it.

Key Concept

Weakening Causal Arguments via Alternative Explanations
Estimated Time:1m 0s
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