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Difficulty: HardNecessary Assumption

Maritime Archaeologist: The shipwreck of the Aurelia, a 19th-century merchant vessel, was recently located just outside the harbor of Port Caelum. The wreck contains a massive cargo of untreated timber. Historical logs confirm that Port Caelum was a major center for furniture manufacturing, which required vast amounts of untreated timber, during that era. Consequently, the Aurelia must have been arriving at Port Caelum to supply the local furniture industry when it foundered.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the maritime archaeologist's argument depends?

  1. A
    Port Caelum lacked a domestic supply of untreated timber sufficient to meet the demands of its furniture manufacturing industry.
  2. B
    Any 19th-century vessel found sunk near Port Caelum with a cargo of untreated timber was en route to supply the local furniture industry.
  3. The Aurelia was not outward bound from Port Caelum when it sank.Answer
  4. D
    The Aurelia sank as a result of navigational hazards specifically associated with entering Port Caelum's harbor.
  5. E
    The untreated timber carried by the Aurelia was of a specific variety that was exclusively utilized in 19th-century furniture production.

Answer

The correct answer is the statement that the Aurelia was not outward bound from Port Caelum when it sank.
The argument concludes that the ship was arriving at Port Caelum to deliver timber, based on the ship's location and cargo. For this to be true, we must rule out the alternative possibility that the ship had just departed from Port Caelum and was heading somewhere else with the timber. The correct answer defends the argument by explicitly ruling out this exact alternative.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that the Aurelia must have been arriving at Port Caelum to supply the local furniture industry.
This is signaled by the word 'Consequently' and represents the archaeologist's main claim.
2
Identify the premises supporting the conclusion.
The premises are: 1) The wreck was found just outside Port Caelum; 2) It contained a massive cargo of untreated timber; 3) Port Caelum was a major furniture manufacturing center requiring vast amounts of such timber.
These established facts are used as evidence to deduce the ship's purpose and destination.
3
Identify the gap in the reasoning.
The archaeologist assumes that proximity to the harbor and possessing a relevant cargo means the ship was arriving. The gap is the possibility that the ship was leaving the harbor after loading timber, or just passing by.
Correlation (being near the port with timber) does not guarantee the causal direction (arriving to deliver it).
4
Apply the Negation Test to the correct answer candidate.
Negating 'The Aurelia was not outward bound' yields 'The Aurelia WAS outward bound'. If the ship was leaving the port, it could not have been arriving to supply the local industry.
Because the negated version destroys the conclusion, the original statement is logically required for the argument to hold.

Key Concept

Necessary Assumption (Defender Pattern)
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Topics

Necessary Assumption

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