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Question

Difficulty: HardStrengthen

Agricultural Economist: In the province of Vallesia, smallholder tomato farmers historically suffered severe post-harvest crop losses due to fungal spoilage during transit. Three years ago, the regional agricultural ministry subsidized the distribution of solar-powered ventilated storage crates. Over the subsequent two years, recorded post-harvest tomato losses across the province fell by nearly 60 percent, leading the ministry to conclude that the crates were responsible for the improvement. However, during the exact same period, an unseasonably severe drought lowered ambient humidity throughout Vallesia's transport corridors. Because ambient fungal spore germination is heavily inhibited in arid conditions, the reduction in tomato spoilage was almost certainly caused by the drought rather than the ventilated crates.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the agricultural economist's argument?

  1. A
    During earlier droughts of equal severity in Vallesia that occurred before the ventilated crates were introduced, post-harvest tomato spoilage rates remained as high as during years with normal humidity.
  2. B
    The governmental subsidies covered only a fraction of the total manufacturing and distribution costs associated with producing the ventilated crates.
  3. Smallholder tomato farmers in Vallesia who continued using traditional unventilated crates throughout the two-year drought experienced a decrease in fungal spoilage comparable to that reported by farmers using the ventilated crates.Answer
  4. D
    Every commercial agricultural crop cultivated in Vallesia requires high levels of atmospheric moisture to maintain optimal post-harvest shelf life during transport.
  5. E
    The solar-powered fans in the ventilated crates malfunctioned frequently on overcast days, causing internal humidity within the crates to fluctuate.

Answer

The argument is most strengthened by demonstrating that tomato farmers who did not use the ventilated crates during the drought still experienced a comparable reduction in spoilage.
The correct answer provides critical comparative evidence: by showing that tomato farmers who never used the ventilated storage crates experienced the exact same reduction in fungal spoilage during the drought period, it isolates the regional aridity as the primary driver of the reduction and confirms that the crates were not necessary to produce the outcome.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the stimulus argument structure and identify the main conclusion and competing causal explanations.
Conclusion: The drought, rather than the ventilated crates, caused the 60 percent decline in post-harvest fungal spoilage. Premise: Fungal spore germination is inhibited in arid conditions, and a drought coincided with crate deployment.
Strengthen questions require isolating the author's specific conclusion and determining what assumption or evidence is needed to favor the author's causal claim over the rival hypothesis.
2
Identify the reasoning gap in the causal attribution.
The author assumes that the correlation between the drought and the drop in spoilage reflects a genuine causal relationship, and that the crates did not contribute meaningfully to the reduction.
To strengthen a causal argument ruling out an alternative cause, a strong strategy is to demonstrate that when the alternative cause (the crates) is absent but the favored cause (the drought) is present, the effect (reduced spoilage) still occurs.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to identify the statement that provides this comparative evidentiary support.
The finding that farmers using traditional crates had identical spoilage reductions during the drought isolates the drought as the operative causal factor and rules out the crates.
This establishes a classic control group that directly reinforces the economist's causal conclusion.

Key Concept

Causal strengthening through control-group evidence (effect occurs when alleged cause is absent but candidate cause is present)
Estimated Time:1m 30s
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