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Difficulty: Very hardWeaken

Historian: In the mid-14th century, settlements in the Variscan Highlands that had recently adopted the 'deep-furrow' agricultural method experienced a 40 percent greater population decline during the regional famine than neighboring Variscan settlements that retained traditional shallow tilling. Therefore, the deep-furrow method was likely more susceptible to the severe drought that caused the famine, leading to more catastrophic crop yields and higher starvation rates in the settlements that used it.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the historian's argument?

  1. A
    Agricultural simulations demonstrate that deep furrows expose a substantially greater surface area of soil to evaporation during prolonged periods without rain than shallow tilling does.
  2. B
    Recent analyses of mid-14th-century tax records suggest that the population decline in deep-furrow settlements was actually roughly equal to the decline in traditional settlements.
  3. C
    Prior to the onset of the famine, the total population of all deep-furrow settlements combined was significantly smaller than the total population of all traditional shallow-tilling settlements.
  4. The wealth accumulated from the high crop yields of the deep-furrow method during normal years allowed residents of those settlements to afford passage to unaffected regions when the drought struck.Answer
  5. E
    The severe drought that precipitated the regional famine was the most extreme meteorological event the Variscan Highlands had experienced in over four centuries.

Answer

The option stating that the wealth from the deep-furrow method allowed residents to afford passage to unaffected regions.
The historian's argument relies on a flawed causal assumption: that the observed population decline in deep-furrow settlements was necessarily caused by an increase in mortality (starvation) resulting from crop failure. This correct answer introduces a devastating alternate explanation for the demographic shift. If the residents used surplus wealth generated by the deep-furrow method to relocate away from the famine zone, the population decline was caused by voluntary migration, not starvation. Furthermore, this implies the agricultural method was actually highly successful, directly contradicting the conclusion that it was an operational failure.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the conclusion of the argument.
The deep-furrow method was more susceptible to the drought, leading to worse crop yields and higher starvation rates.
Understanding the exact claim being made is necessary to evaluate its structural vulnerabilities.
2
Identify the premise supporting this conclusion.
Deep-furrow settlements experienced a 40 percent greater population decline during the famine compared to traditional settlements.
The argument relies entirely on a direct causal link between this statistical premise and the conclusion.
3
Locate the logical gap or assumption.
The historian equates 'population decline' solely with 'starvation rates', failing to consider other mechanisms of demographic change such as migration.
Identifying unstated assumptions is the primary method for finding the central flaw in causal reasoning.
4
Evaluate the options to find one that exploits this gap.
The correct option provides a compelling alternate cause for the population decline: mass emigration made possible by the economic success of the deep-furrow method itself.
An alternate cause that completely severs the link between the agricultural method's purported failure and the population drop fatally undermines the conclusion.

Key Concept

Causal Reasoning and Alternate Explanations
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