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Difficulty: MediumParallel Causal Reasoning

The sudden discoloration of the town's water supply must have been caused by the recent plumbing upgrades at the municipal plant. The only other plausible explanation for the discoloration is a seasonal algae bloom, but environmental scientists have confirmed that the water temperatures are currently too low to support such a bloom.

The pattern of reasoning in which one of the following arguments is most similar to that in the argument above?

  1. The catastrophic failure of the server network was undoubtedly caused by a malicious cyberattack. The only other potential cause for a system-wide crash of this nature is a hardware malfunction, and diagnostics show that all physical hardware was operating perfectly at the time of the crash.Answer
  2. B
    Neighborhoods with abundant street lighting experience fewer property crimes. Thus, the city council's decision to install more streetlights will cause a significant reduction in the city's crime rate.
  3. C
    A compromised immune system is necessary for the contraction of this rare bacterial infection. Therefore, since the patient has contracted the infection, a compromised immune system is the cause.
  4. D
    Consuming foods high in synthetic preservatives causes rapid deterioration of this specific intestinal flora. Because the patient is experiencing a rapid deterioration of this flora, they must be consuming synthetic preservatives.
  5. E
    Some volcanic eruptions cause massive global temperature drops. Therefore, the most recent global temperature drop was undoubtedly caused by the volcanic eruption recorded last year.

Answer

The argument concluding that a cyberattack caused the server failure because the only other possible cause, a hardware malfunction, was completely ruled out.
The original argument is a valid application of causal elimination. It states a phenomenon (discoloration), limits the potential causes to exactly two options (plumbing or algae), provides evidence to completely rule out one option (algae), and logically concludes the remaining option (plumbing) is the cause. The correct choice identically structures its reasoning: it notes a phenomenon (server failure), identifies exactly two potential causes (cyberattack or hardware), rules out one with evidence (hardware), and concludes the remaining one (cyberattack) must be the cause.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the logical structure of the stimulus argument.
The stimulus identifies an effect (water discoloration), restricts the possible causes to exactly two options (plumbing upgrades or algae), rules out the second option with evidence (temperatures too low), and concludes the first option is the cause.
To find a parallel argument, one must first identify the exact logical and causal framework of the original text.
2
Evaluate the answer choices to find the identical structural pattern.
Only the argument about the server network matches this 'Causal Elimination' structure: Effect (server crash) -> Two causes (cyberattack or hardware) -> Hardware ruled out (operating perfectly) -> Conclusion (cyberattack is the cause).
Parallel reasoning requires matching the underlying structural pattern and validity of the argument, completely independent of the subject matter.

Key Concept

Parallel Causal Reasoning (Causal Elimination)
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Topics

Parallel Causal Reasoning

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