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Difficulty: MediumTime Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)

Marine Biologist: For the past two decades, the population of staghorn coral in the southern reef has declined by exactly 5 percent each year due to rising average water temperatures. Our latest climate models project that water temperatures in this region will continue to rise at an identical rate over the next twenty years. Therefore, we can confidently predict that the staghorn coral population will continue to shrink by 5 percent annually during this future period.

Which of the following accurately describe a logical flaw in the marine biologist's reasoning? Select all that apply.

  1. It takes for granted that a statistical trend observed over a past period will inevitably persist into the future.Answer
  2. B
    It infers that one phenomenon causes another merely on the basis that the two phenomena have been observed together.
  3. It fails to consider that the entities subjected to a continuing condition might change over time in ways that alter their future responses.Answer
  4. D
    It illicitly presumes that a condition sufficient to guarantee a particular outcome is the only condition that can produce that outcome.
  5. E
    It relies on an ambiguous use of a key scientific term, using it in two distinct senses within the same argument.

Answer

The correct options are those indicating that the argument unjustifiably projects a past trend into the future and ignores potential biological changes in the population over time.
The marine biologist's argument exhibits a classic time shift flaw. It assumes that a trend observed in the past will inevitably continue into the future simply because one driving environmental factor (rising temperatures) remains constant. This reasoning is flawed in two key ways described by the correct options: first, it broadly assumes past statistical trends guarantee future outcomes without justification; second, it fails to consider that the coral population itself might change over time—for instance, the surviving coral might be more heat-resistant, meaning the future rate of decline could decrease.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the argument's premises.
The coral population declined by 5 percent annually over the past twenty years due to rising temperatures, and temperatures will continue to rise at the same rate.
Understanding the foundation of the argument is necessary to evaluate its logic.
2
Identify the argument's conclusion.
The coral population will inevitably continue to decline by 5 percent annually over the next twenty years.
The conclusion reveals the leap in logic made by the author.
3
Evaluate the logical gap (flaw) between the premises and the conclusion.
The author assumes that identical environmental conditions will produce the exact identical biological responses indefinitely, ignoring the passage of time.
Identifying the time shift flaw is required to evaluate the answer choices.
4
Analyze the options to find accurate diagnostic descriptions of this temporal flaw.
One correct option correctly describes the assumption that historical trends will persist unchanged. The other correct option notes the failure to account for potential adaptation or changes in the coral population's characteristics over time.
A multi-select flaw question requires identifying all valid angles of the argument's vulnerability.

Key Concept

Time Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)
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Topics

Time Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)

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