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Zorluk: KolayIdentifying Unstated Assumptions

The municipal electric utility of a small district recently announced a plan to replace its natural gas electricity supply with solar power. The utility directors argue that because generating electricity from solar power currently costs significantly less per megawatt-hour than generating it from natural gas, adopting solar power will reduce the total monthly electricity bills of local residents. Which of the following is an assumption on which the utility directors' argument depends?

  1. The additional expenses required to transmit and integrate solar energy into the local power grid will not exceed the savings gained from lower generation costs.Cevap
  2. B
    Solar power generation costs will continue to decrease steadily over the next ten years.
  3. C
    The district will be able to completely eliminate its reliance on all fossil fuels within five years.
  4. D
    Transitioning to solar power will significantly increase total monthly electricity bills for local residents.
  5. E
    Every resident in the district prefers solar energy over natural gas energy.

Cevap

The argument depends on the assumption that additional expenses to transmit and integrate solar energy into the local power grid will not exceed the savings gained from lower generation costs.
The argument moves from a premise about lower generation costs to a conclusion about lower overall monthly bills. For this conclusion to hold, other non-generation expenses associated with adopting solar power—such as grid transmission and integration—must not exceed the money saved on generation. Negating this statement directly invalidates the author's conclusion.

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1
Identify the premises and conclusion of the argument.
Premise: Generating solar power costs less per megawatt-hour than natural gas. Conclusion: Switching to solar power will reduce total monthly electricity bills.
Understanding the logical jump between lower generation cost and lower overall bills is essential for identifying unstated assumptions.
2
Identify potential gaps between the premise and conclusion.
The argument assumes generation cost is the only relevant factor determining final electricity bills.
If secondary costs (such as grid integration or transmission) outweigh generation savings, total costs will increase.
3
Apply the Negation Test to the correct choice.
Negating the option gives: 'Additional transmission and integration costs WILL exceed the savings.' This completely shatters the conclusion that overall bills will be reduced.
A valid assumption must collapse the conclusion when logically negated.

Anahtar Kavram

Identifying Unstated Assumptions using the Negation Test
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Identifying Unstated Assumptions

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