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Zorluk: Çok zorSampling and Generalization Flaws

To determine how to allocate regional transit development funds, a metropolitan planning committee surveyed passengers riding the city center express subway line during weekday morning rush hours. Ninety-two percent of the surveyed riders reported that they preferred increasing the frequency of express subway trains over expanding suburban feeder bus lines. On the basis of these survey results, the committee concluded that the metropolitan area's commuter population as a whole overwhelmingly favors rail transit enhancements over bus network expansions. The reasoning in the committee's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

  1. A
    presumes without justification that the transit preferences of commuters during peak morning hours are identical to the preferences of off-peak commuters
  2. bases a broad conclusion about the preferences of all regional commuters on a sample limited exclusively to individuals currently using express rail serviceCevap
  3. C
    takes for granted that increasing express rail service frequency requires financial resources comparable to expanding suburban feeder bus lines
  4. D
    confuses a condition necessary for increasing overall commuter satisfaction with a condition that is sufficient to guarantee higher transit usage
  5. E
    mistakes a high percentage of survey respondents supporting rail improvements for an increase in the absolute number of daily transit passengers

Cevap

The argument is flawed because it relies on an unrepresentative sample—surveying only existing express rail passengers during peak hours—to make a sweeping generalization about the preferences of the entire metropolitan commuter population.
The correct answer accurately points out that the argument draws a conclusion about all regional commuters based on data collected only from passengers already riding the express subway line. Because express rail users naturally favor rail transportation more than the general commuting population does, the survey sample is structurally unrepresentative, rendering the generalization invalid.

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1
Identify the Premise and Conclusion
Premise: 92% of surveyed express subway riders during weekday morning rush hours prefer more express trains over expanded suburban bus routes. Conclusion: The region's commuter population as a whole overwhelmingly favors rail transit improvements over bus expansions.
Isolating the structural components reveals the leap from the sampled subgroup to the target population.
2
Evaluate the Sample's Representativeness
The sample consists exclusively of people who already choose to take the express subway line.
A sample must accurately mirror the diverse demographics and preferences of the larger target group (all commuters, including suburban bus riders and motorists) to yield a valid inductive generalization.
3
Identify the Sampling Flaw
Self-selection and selection bias are present: express rail riders inherently value rail service and are far more likely to advocate for rail improvements than people who rely on suburban buses or cars.
Generalizing from a heavily biased sample to the broader population is a classic sampling flaw.

Anahtar Kavram

Sampling and Generalization Flaws (Selection / Unrepresentative Sample Bias)
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Konular

Sampling and Generalization Flaws

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