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Zorluk: KolayStrengthening Arguments

A small local bakery introduced a new sugar-free pastry line last month, hoping to attract health-conscious customers. During that same month, the bakery's total sales increased by 20 percent. The owner concludes that introducing the sugar-free pastry line was the main cause of the increase in total sales. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the owner's conclusion?

  1. Customer surveys conducted last month showed that the majority of new customers visited the bakery specifically to purchase the new sugar-free pastries.Cevap
  2. B
    A nearby competing bakery closed permanently at the start of last month, redirecting its regular customer traffic to this bakery.
  3. C
    Sugar-free pastries typically contain fewer total calories than traditional baked goods.
  4. D
    The bakery owner plans to introduce a line of sugar-free bottled teas early next year.
  5. E
    The wholesale price of flour used in the bakery's traditional pastries increased slightly last month.

Cevap

Customer surveys conducted last month showed that the majority of new customers visited the bakery specifically to purchase the new sugar-free pastries.
The conclusion asserts a causal relationship between the launch of sugar-free pastries and the 20 percent sales increase. Showing that most new customers were drawn to the shop specifically by the sugar-free pastries provides direct evidence that the new line was indeed the driver of the increased sales.

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1
Identify the argument's premises and conclusion.
Premises: Sugar-free pastries introduced last month; total sales rose 20% that month. Conclusion: The sugar-free line caused the sales increase.
To strengthen an argument, one must first isolate the core gap between evidence and conclusion.
2
Identify the assumption or missing link.
The argument assumes the sales growth came from buyers of the new sugar-free pastries rather than external factors or increased sales of traditional items.
A strengthening statement will confirm this link or eliminate major alternative explanations.
3
Evaluate the choices to find the one that directly supports the causal link.
The statement showing that most new customers came specifically for the sugar-free pastries directly confirms that the new line drove the sales increase.
Direct evidence of consumer motivation confirms the proposed cause-and-effect relationship.

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Strengthening Causal Arguments
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