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Zorluk: ZorStrengthening Arguments

A municipal health agency recently installed advanced air-purification filtration systems in all public primary schools located in Sector 4, a district known for high levels of industrial particulate pollution. Over the six months following the installation, student absenteeism due to respiratory illnesses in Sector 4 primary schools dropped by 30 percent compared to the same period in previous years. Concluding that the filtration systems were directly responsible for this health improvement, city officials plan to expand the installation of these systems to all public secondary schools in Sector 4.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the city officials' conclusion?

  1. During the six months following the installation, the total ambient concentration of industrial particulate pollution throughout Sector 4 remained at or above historical averages.Cevap
  2. B
    Secondary school students in Sector 4 spend a significantly smaller proportion of their school day indoors compared to primary school students.
  3. C
    The advanced air-purification filtration systems require maintenance only once every two years, making them highly cost-effective compared to older models.
  4. D
    A minor reduction in respiratory absenteeism was also observed in neighboring Sector 5, where primary schools implemented a strict hand-washing protocol but no air-purification systems.
  5. E
    Absenteeism caused by non-respiratory illnesses, such as seasonal influenza, increased slightly among Sector 4 primary school students during the same six-month period.

Cevap

The argument is most strongly supported by the statement indicating that ambient outdoor pollution levels remained at or above historical averages during the six-month trial period.
The conclusion asserts a direct causal link between the newly installed air-purification systems and a 30 percent reduction in respiratory illness absenteeism. A classic vulnerability in causal arguments is that an unmentioned external factor—such as a general decrease in district-wide ambient pollution—might actually account for the outcome. The statement establishing that overall ambient pollution in Sector 4 remained at or above historical levels effectively rules out lower external pollution as an alternative explanation, thereby strengthening the conclusion that the indoor filtration systems caused the health improvement.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Deconstruct the Argument Structure
Premise: Indoor air filters were installed in Sector 4 primary schools, and respiratory absenteeism fell by 30%. Conclusion: The filtration systems were directly responsible for the reduction in respiratory illness.
Identifying the premise and conclusion reveals the underlying causal claim: Air Filters (Cause) -> Decreased Respiratory Illness (Effect).
2
Identify the Logical Vulnerability
The argument assumes correlation equals causation and ignores potential confounding variables, such as a natural decrease in overall outdoor pollution during those six months.
To strengthen a causal argument, one must eliminate alternative causes for the observed effect.
3
Evaluate the Impact of Ruling Out an Alternative Cause
Confirming that outdoor pollution remained high confirms that the drop in respiratory illness was not simply due to cleaner outdoor air, strongly reinforcing the contribution of the indoor filters.
Ruling out a major confounding variable directly bolsters the validity of the author's causal conclusion.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Ruling Out Alternative Causes
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Konular

Strengthening Arguments

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