Passage: A telecommunications firm observed that remote software engineers who voluntarily completed an asynchronous time-management training module logged 30% fewer project delays over six months than remote software engineers who did not complete the module. The human resources department concluded that the time-management training module directly caused the reduction in project delays.
Statement: If software engineers who possessed pre-existing high levels of self-motivation and organizational skills were significantly more likely to voluntarily enroll in the module, this factor functions as a confounding variable that undermines the human resources department's causal conclusion.
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Cevap
The statement is True. Pre-existing baseline traits (such as self-motivation and organizational skills) among voluntary enrollees act as a confounding third variable, providing an alternative explanation for the observed reduction in project delays.
The statement accurately identifies a classic confounding variable (self-selection bias). In causal reasoning, if the group choosing to undergo an intervention already possesses traits that foster the desired outcome, one cannot attribute the outcome solely to the intervention.
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Causal Flaws and Confounding Variables