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Zorluk: KolayStrengthening Arguments

A winery recently released thousands of beneficial predatory beetles into its vineyards to combat vine mites, which damage grape crops. At the end of the harvest season, the winery reported a 20 percent increase in usable grape yield compared to the previous year. The vineyard manager concluded that introducing the predatory beetles was the primary reason for the increased crop yield.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the vineyard manager's conclusion?

  1. Vineyards in the same immediate region that did not introduce predatory beetles experienced no increase in grape yield over the same period.Cevap
  2. B
    Weather conditions during the recent harvest season were exceptionally favorable for grape growth compared to the previous year.
  3. C
    Predatory beetles are generally more expensive to purchase and release than standard chemical pesticides.
  4. D
    The winery plans to expand its distribution of organic wine to several international markets next year.
  5. E
    Vine mites are known to cause severe damage to both grape leaves and the stems of grape clusters.

Cevap

Vineyards in the same immediate region that did not introduce predatory beetles experienced no increase in grape yield over the same period.
The argument attributes the 20 percent yield increase specifically to the introduction of predatory beetles. The correct response strengthens this causal claim by providing a control group: neighboring vineyards under similar environmental conditions that did not use beetles saw no increase in yield. This eliminates general regional factors (like weather or rainfall) as alternative causes, making it much more likely that the beetles caused the increase.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and premises
Premise: Beetles were released and grape yield increased by 20%. Conclusion: The beetles caused the yield increase.
Isolating the causal assertion is required before evaluating strengthening evidence.
2
Determine how to strengthen a causal claim
A causal claim is strengthened by showing that when the cause is absent, the effect does not occur, or by ruling out alternative explanations.
Establishing a control comparison isolates the proposed cause as the key variable.
3
Evaluate the choices for a valid control group or eliminated alternative cause
The statement showing neighboring vineyards without beetles had no yield increase serves as a control group, supporting the conclusion.
This makes it significantly more likely that the beetles, rather than general regional conditions, caused the yield increase.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Arguments via Control Groups
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Konular

Strengthening Arguments

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