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Zorluk: KolayLogical Arguments and Causal Relationships

A telecommunications company conducted a 12-month study across 40 regional markets to evaluate why customer churn dropped significantly following the introduction of a self-service mobile application. The lead analyst hypothesized that the mobile application's automated troubleshooting feature directly caused the reduction in customer churn by resolving service disruptions without requiring support calls. Which TWO of the following statements, if true, most strongly strengthen the lead analyst's causal hypothesis?

  1. In a controlled subset of markets where all application features except automated troubleshooting were enabled, customer churn rates remained identical to pre-application levels.Cevap
  2. B
    Customers who experienced frequent service disruptions were significantly more likely to download and open the self-service mobile application than customers with stable service.
  3. In markets where the automated troubleshooting feature was actively used, support call volume for service disruptions decreased by 45%, coinciding directly with the sharpest drops in customer churn.Cevap
  4. D
    The telecommunications company launched a major nationwide price discount campaign across all 40 regional markets at the exact same time the mobile application was introduced.
  5. E
    Regional markets with higher initial churn rates showed a higher overall percentage of customers filling out post-call customer satisfaction surveys.

Cevap

The two statements that strengthen the hypothesis are: (1) the statement showing that market subsets lacking only the automated troubleshooting feature experienced no drop in churn, and (2) the statement showing that active troubleshooting use directly correlated with decreased support calls for disruptions and reduced churn.
The lead analyst's hypothesis asserts that the automated troubleshooting feature reduced churn by resolving service disruptions. The statement demonstrating that markets with all app features except troubleshooting experienced no change in churn isolates the troubleshooting feature as the necessary cause. The statement showing that active troubleshooting usage led to decreased disruption support calls alongside drops in churn provides positive empirical confirmation of the underlying mechanism.

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1
Identify the core causal claim in the argument stem.
The lead analyst claims that the automated troubleshooting feature (Cause) directly led to lower customer churn (Effect) by resolving service disruptions without support calls (Mechanism).
Strengthening a causal claim requires establishing that the cause produces the effect and ruling out alternative causes or reversed causality.
2
Evaluate statements for evidence that supports the causal mechanism or isolates the cause.
The statement showing churn remained unchanged when all features EXCEPT troubleshooting were present isolates the troubleshooting feature as the essential cause. The statement linking active troubleshooting usage to fewer call disruptions and lower churn confirms the proposed mechanism.
These two statements provide controlled evidence supporting the exact causal link hypothesized by the analyst.
3
Identify distractors containing causal reversals, alternative explanations, or irrelevant data.
The option describing disruption frequency driving app downloads reverses cause and effect. The option regarding nationwide price discounts introduces a confounding variable. The option regarding survey response rates provides irrelevant data.
Distractor options either weaken the argument or fail to address the core causal mechanism.

Anahtar Kavram

Causal Arguments and Two-Part Logical Strengthening
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Konular

Logical Arguments and Causal Relationships

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