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Zorluk: OrtaCausal Flaws and Confounding Variables

Executives at a luxury hotel chain noted that properties featuring a newly installed organic tea station in the main lobby achieved significantly higher overall guest satisfaction scores than properties without such a station. Based on this observation, the executives concluded that providing free organic tea to guests directly improves overall guest satisfaction.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the executives' argument?

  1. The hotel properties selected to receive organic tea stations were also those that had recently completed major room renovations and staff retraining.Cevap
  2. B
    Guests who visited the lobby tea station reported feeling significantly more relaxed during check-in than guests who did not visit the station.
  3. C
    Operating an organic tea station requires less daily maintenance than managing a complimentary breakfast buffet.
  4. D
    Guest satisfaction ratings at properties with tea stations began rising immediately following the installation of the stations.
  5. E
    The executive team implemented the tea stations as an intermediate trial phase prior to reviewing overall guest service amenities.

Cevap

The argument is most seriously weakened by revealing that the hotel properties featuring tea stations had also undergone major room renovations and staff retraining, introducing a confounding variable.
The correct answer weakens the argument by introducing a classic confounding variable (third variable). If the hotels that received tea stations were also renovated and had their staff retrained, those improvements—rather than the tea station—could fully account for the higher guest satisfaction scores.

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1
Identify the premise and conclusion of the causal argument.
Premise: Hotel properties with organic tea stations have higher satisfaction scores than those without. Conclusion: Offering organic tea directly causes higher guest satisfaction.
Understanding the precise gap between observed correlation and claimed causality is necessary to evaluate the argument.
2
Analyze the logical flaw in the conclusion.
The argument commits a causal flaw by assuming that because the tea stations and high satisfaction ratings occurred together, the tea station must be the cause.
Causal conclusions based on simple correlations are vulnerable to alternative explanations, such as third-variable confounders.
3
Evaluate the choices for a third variable or alternate cause.
The option noting that properties with tea stations also received major room renovations and staff retraining introduces confounding factors that easily explain the higher satisfaction scores independently of the tea.
Showing that another major positive change co-occurred at the exact same properties severely undermines the claim that the tea station specifically caused the increase.

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Causal Flaws and Confounding Variables
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Causal Flaws and Confounding Variables

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