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Zorluk: OrtaWeakening Arguments

To protect native trout populations from invasive northern pike, regional conservationists installed a high-frequency acoustic barrier across the narrow inlet leading into Lake Solitude. Over the subsequent two years, monitoring surveys recorded a 40 percent decrease in the northern pike population upstream of the barrier. Concluding that the barrier successfully deterred the invasive species from migrating, officials plan to deploy similar acoustic technology across other regional waterways. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conservationists' argument?

  1. A severe outbreak of a species-specific bacterial infection drastically reduced northern pike populations throughout the entire river basin during the two-year period.Cevap
  2. B
    Laboratory evaluations conducted prior to installation demonstrated that northern pike consistently alter their swimming direction when exposed to high-frequency sound waves.
  3. C
    Native trout populations upstream of the barrier did not show a statistically significant increase in size during the two-year monitoring period.
  4. D
    High-frequency acoustic deterrents installed in coastal marine environments have occasionally disrupted the navigation of non-target sea mammals.
  5. E
    The operational and maintenance costs of high-frequency acoustic barriers are substantially higher than those of physical mesh barriers.

Cevap

The argument is most seriously weakened by the statement that a severe outbreak of a species-specific bacterial infection drastically reduced northern pike populations throughout the entire river basin during the two-year period.
The correct answer weakens the argument by introducing an alternate cause for the observed decline in the upstream northern pike population. If a widespread bacterial infection caused pike populations to plummet across the entire river basin, the population drop upstream would have occurred regardless of whether the acoustic barrier was installed, thereby dismantling the causal conclusion that the barrier caused the reduction.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the argument's premises and conclusion.
Premise: An acoustic barrier was installed, and the upstream pike population dropped by 40% over two years. Conclusion: The acoustic barrier caused the reduction by deterring pike migration.
Understanding the structure isolates the underlying causal inference that must be evaluated.
2
Identify the implicit vulnerability in the causal claim.
The argument assumes that the acoustic barrier was the sole or primary reason for the observed population decline upstream, ignoring potential alternative causes.
Causal conclusions based on temporal correlation are vulnerable to alternative explanations for the observed outcome.
3
Evaluate the options for a factor that undermines the causal link.
The statement regarding a basin-wide bacterial infection introduces a strong alternative cause for the population drop that operates independently of the barrier's presence.
If pike populations dropped everywhere due to disease, the 40% drop upstream cannot be reliably attributed to the acoustic deterrent.

Anahtar Kavram

Weakening Causal Inferences via Alternative Causes
Tahmini Süre:1m 30s
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Weakening Arguments

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