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Zorluk: OrtaStrengthening Arguments

A municipal power authority introduced automated smart meters across residential districts to detect voltage anomalies and isolate localized power outages automatically. During the six months following installation, the total duration of power outages experienced by residents in these districts decreased by 35 percent compared to the same period in previous years. Municipal officials concluded that the automatic anomaly detection of the smart meters was directly responsible for reducing outage durations.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest support for the municipal officials' conclusion?

  1. A
    Simultaneously with the smart meter rollout, the power authority completed major structural upgrades to main transmission cables serving the same districts.
  2. B
    The average monthly energy cost per household in districts with smart meters did not decrease after the devices were installed.
  3. During the six-month period following installation, the region experienced weather patterns and storm frequencies typical of previous years.Cevap
  4. D
    Commercial districts in adjacent municipalities that did not install smart meters experienced a substantial increase in customer service inquiries regarding billing during the same period.
  5. E
    Most residents in the affected districts were aware that the new meters were designed to report power fluctuations directly to repair technicians.

Cevap

The argument is most strengthened by the statement showing that weather patterns and storm frequencies during the post-installation period were typical of previous years.
The conclusion attributes the 35 percent drop in outage durations directly to the smart meters' anomaly detection capability. The statement confirming that storm frequencies and weather patterns were typical of prior years eliminates an alternative explanation—namely, that a period of unusually mild weather reduced grid damage and caused the drop in outage times. By ruling out this key alternative cause, the statement significantly strengthens the causal connection proposed by municipal officials.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the premise and conclusion of the argument
Premise: Outage durations dropped 35 percent after installing automated smart meters. Conclusion: Smart meter anomaly detection directly caused the reduction.
Understanding the precise causal claim is essential for evaluating statements that strengthen or weaken it.
2
Identify potential logical vulnerabilities in the causal claim
The main vulnerability is that an external factor (such as unusually mild weather or grid infrastructure repairs) might be the true cause of the reduced outage durations.
A standard way to strengthen a causal conclusion is to eliminate competing alternative causes.
3
Evaluate the options for a statement that addresses these vulnerabilities
The option noting that weather conditions were typical of previous years confirms that mild weather was not responsible for the decrease, thereby supporting the smart meters as the true cause.
Ruling out a plausible confounding variable increases the probability that the author's stated cause is correct.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Ruling Out Alternative Causes
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Konular

Strengthening Arguments

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