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Zorluk: ZorWeakening Arguments

Archaeologists analyzing the ancient agricultural settlement of Oakhaven found that soil moisture levels dropped sharply during the eighth century CE, a period corresponding to a recorded increase in regional temperatures. Because crop yields collapsed simultaneously, the archaeologists concluded that the rise in regional temperatures was the direct cause of the soil moisture depletion and the subsequent agricultural collapse.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the archaeologists' argument?

  1. Early in the eighth century CE, residents of Oakhaven diverted the primary river feeding their irrigation network to construct a massive defensive moat, severely curtailing water delivery to surrounding cropland.Cevap
  2. B
    Soil samples from uncultivated wild areas surrounding Oakhaven exhibited a moisture decline identical to that measured in the settlement's agricultural fields during the same century.
  3. C
    Historical weather logs from adjacent regions show that periods of higher temperatures in previous centuries frequently coincided with lower overall annual precipitation.
  4. D
    Innovations in grain storage technology developed in the ninth century CE allowed subsequent populations in the region to survive prolonged droughts.
  5. E
    The primary wheat crops cultivated at Oakhaven required slightly higher soil moisture levels to achieve maximum yield than the legume crops grown by nearby nomadic tribes.

Cevap

The argument is most seriously weakened by the statement establishing that early in the eighth century CE, Oakhaven residents diverted the primary river supplying their irrigation network to construct a defensive moat, severely curtailing water delivery to cropland.
The correct answer undermines the argument by presenting an alternative explanation for the drop in soil moisture. If the inhabitants diverted the main river for a defensive moat and restricted irrigation to crops, this human intervention directly accounts for the agricultural soil depletion, rendering the conclusion about temperature being the direct cause unconvincing.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and premises of the argument.
Premises: Soil moisture dropped and crop yields collapsed during a period of increased regional temperatures. Conclusion: The rise in regional temperatures directly caused the soil moisture depletion and agricultural collapse.
Understanding the precise causal link asserted by the author is essential to targeting its vulnerability.
2
Identify the underlying assumption or vulnerability in the causal reasoning.
The argument assumes that no alternative factor (such as human intervention or structural changes in water management) caused the drop in soil moisture.
Causal conclusions in Critical Reasoning are vulnerable to alternative explanations for the observed effect.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to find a statement that introduces a plausible alternative cause for the moisture loss.
The statement regarding the diversion of the main river for a defensive moat provides a direct alternative explanation for why soil moisture in the crops decreased, independent of climate change.
Demonstrating that human actions cut off the irrigation water supply undermines the claim that rising temperatures were the primary cause of the moisture drop.

Anahtar Kavram

Weakening Causal Arguments via Alternative Cause
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Konular

Weakening Arguments

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