Match each of the following causal arguments (Left) with the specific unstated assumption upon which its conclusion most heavily relies (Right).
- Studies consistently show that individuals who participate in extreme sports have lower resting heart rates than those who do not. Researchers conclude that the physiological demands of extreme sports directly strengthen cardiac efficiency.Takes for granted that the characteristic identified as the effect is not, in reality, a prerequisite condition that facilitates engagement in the purported cause.
- A university study found a strong correlation between the number of hours students spend playing classical music in their dormitories and their final GPAs. The administration concluded that listening to classical music enhances cognitive retention.Presumes that an unacknowledged underlying demographic or behavioral factor is not independently responsible for generating both of the correlated phenomena.
- Exactly two weeks after the city council launched its new public awareness campaign on water conservation, the municipal reservoir levels stopped declining. The mayor announced that the campaign successfully halted excessive water usage.Relies on the premise that a sequential temporal relationship indicates causation, failing to account for independent, concurrent developments that could produce the outcome.
- An online survey administered to visitors of a holistic wellness blog revealed that 90% of respondents who take herbal supplements report robust immune systems. The author concludes that herbal supplements objectively prevent infectious diseases.Depends on the assumption that the methodology used to establish the correlation is sufficiently representative and free from systemic selection or self-reporting biases.
Cevap
The extreme sports argument pairs with the prerequisite condition assumption. The classical music argument pairs with the underlying demographic factor assumption. The water conservation argument pairs with the temporal relationship assumption. The wellness blog argument pairs with the methodology and selection bias assumption.
Each argument exhibits a distinct vulnerability in its leap from premises to a causal conclusion. The extreme sports argument assumes the purported effect is not actually the initiating cause (reverse causation). The classical music argument assumes a common third variable is not responsible for producing both phenomena. The water campaign argument assumes temporal succession strictly implies causation, failing to rule out concurrent alternative causes. The holistic blog argument assumes its highly flawed, self-selected survey data serves as an objectively reliable foundation.
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Assumptions in Causal Arguments