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Zorluk: KolayTime Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)

Mayor: Over the last two decades, the population of our city has steadily increased by exactly 5 percent every year. The city is currently facing a housing shortage. Based on this historical data, we can conclude that the city's population will definitely grow by 5 percent next year, exacerbating the housing shortage.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the mayor's reasoning?

  1. It takes for granted that a trend that has occurred consistently in the past will necessarily continue into the future.Cevap
  2. B
    It assumes that a factor that is correlated with population growth actually caused that growth.
  3. C
    It infers that because a city as a whole experiences population growth, each specific part of the city must also experience that growth.
  4. D
    It relies on an ambiguous use of the phrase 'housing shortage'.
  5. E
    It confuses a condition that is sufficient to cause a housing shortage with one that is necessary to cause it.

Cevap

The option stating that the argument takes for granted that a past trend will necessarily continue into the future.
The correct answer accurately identifies the temporal leap in the argument. The mayor uses purely historical data (past growth) to make a definitive claim about future events (growth next year), without providing any evidence that the underlying conditions driving that growth will remain the same.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the structure of the argument.
Premise: Population has grown by 5% every year for the past two decades. Conclusion: Population will grow by 5% next year.
Identifying the premises and the conclusion is the essential first step in evaluating any logical flaw.
2
Identify the logical gap between the premise and the conclusion.
The gap is the assumption that past conditions will remain unchanged in the future.
Conclusions in flawed arguments rely on unwarranted assumptions. Here, the evidence is entirely historical, but the conclusion is a definitive prediction.
3
Match the identified gap to the answer choices.
The correct option explicitly identifies the unwarranted assumption that a historical trend will automatically continue.
This matches the definition of a time shift flaw, which is the central error in the mayor's argument.

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Time Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)
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Time Shift Flaws (Past vs. Future)

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