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Historians studying a nineteenth-century coastal port observed that merchant shipping logs recorded a sharp decrease in shipwrecks near a treacherous submerged reef following the construction of a lighthouse in 1842. Based on this correlation, the historians concluded that the beam from the new lighthouse was directly responsible for the reduction in wrecks by warning navigators away from the hazard.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the historians' argument?

  1. The total volume of shipping traffic passing near the submerged reef remained constant or slightly increased in the years immediately following 1842.Cevap
  2. B
    In 1843, regional naval authorities published updated navigational charts advising merchant captains to completely avoid the shipping lanes near the reef.
  3. C
    Lighthouses built along neighboring coastlines during the same period were universally recognized as the tallest structures in the country.
  4. D
    Prior to 1842, merchant logs frequently omitted minor cargo delays that did not result in structural damage to the vessel.
  5. E
    The architectural blueprints used to construct the 1842 lighthouse were later repurposed for several inland watchtowers.

Cevap

The statement showing that shipping traffic near the reef remained steady or increased after 1842 most strengthens the argument.
The argument concludes that the lighthouse beam caused the decrease in shipwrecks. However, a major alternative explanation for fewer shipwrecks is a general decline in the number of ships traveling near the reef. Establishing that shipping traffic stayed constant or increased rules out this rival hypothesis, confirming that the reduction in wrecks was due to improved navigational guidance.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and premises in the stimulus.
Premise: Shipwrecks near a reef declined after a lighthouse was built in 1842. Conclusion: The lighthouse caused the decline by warning navigators away from the reef.
Understanding the core causal claim is essential for determining what logical gap needs reinforcement.
2
Analyze the potential vulnerabilities and unstated assumptions in the causal reasoning.
The author assumes that no other factor, such as a drop in total vessel traffic near the reef, accounted for the decline in recorded shipwrecks.
Strengthening a causal conclusion often involves ruling out plausible alternative causes or confirming that baseline conditions did not change.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to find the statement that best supports the causal link.
Confirming that ship traffic remained steady or increased eliminates the competing hypothesis of reduced traffic, thereby confirming that the rate of wrecks per voyage genuinely declined due to the warning beam.
Ruling out an obvious confounding variable directly substantiates the proposed causal connection.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims by Ruling Out Alternative Explanations
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