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Zorluk: KolaySampling and Survey Flaws

A local magazine recently conducted a survey to determine whether the city's residents support the construction of a new public park. The magazine mailed a questionnaire to all of its subscribers and found that 80 percent of the respondents strongly favor the new park. Based on these results, the magazine concluded that a vast majority of the city's residents support the construction of the new park.

Which of the following best describes the flaw in the magazine's reasoning?

  1. A
    It incorrectly assumes that a high percentage of support equates to a large absolute number of supporters.
  2. B
    It takes evidence that most of the respondents support the park to draw a conclusion that all residents in the city support the park.
  3. It takes for granted that the views of the magazine's subscribers accurately reflect the views of the city's residents as a whole.Cevap
  4. D
    It concludes that a relationship is causal when the evidence provided only establishes a correlation between reading the magazine and supporting the park.
  5. E
    It relies on an ambiguous use of the term 'support' by shifting its meaning midway through the argument.

Cevap

The argument is flawed because it assumes that the magazine's subscribers are a representative sample of the city's overall population.
The correct answer accurately points out that the argument relies on an unrepresentative sample. The magazine surveyed only its own subscribers, a specific group of people who are not necessarily reflective of the broader city population. Therefore, applying the survey's 80 percent approval rate to the entire city is logically flawed.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that a vast majority of the city's residents support the new park.
Understanding what the author is trying to prove is the first step in evaluating the reasoning.
2
Identify the premises used to support the conclusion.
The premise is that 80 percent of the magazine's subscribers who responded to a survey favor the park.
Isolating the evidence reveals the foundation of the author's claim.
3
Evaluate the logical connection between the premises and the conclusion to find the flaw.
The argument jumps from a specific subgroup (magazine subscribers) to a general population (city residents) without establishing that the subgroup is representative.
This highlights the sampling bias, which is the core logical vulnerability of the argument.

Anahtar Kavram

Unrepresentative Sample
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Sampling and Survey Flaws

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