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Consider the following argument:

Public Health Official: Last year, the city launched a comprehensive campaign to encourage drivers to wear seatbelts. The campaign drastically changed behavior: surveys confirm that the proportion of drivers in the city who regularly wear seatbelts surged from 40 percent last year to 80 percent this year. However, recent traffic reports reveal that the total number of severe injuries resulting from car accidents in the city has actually increased by 15 percent compared to last year. Clearly, wearing a seatbelt does not actually reduce a driver's risk of suffering a severe injury in a car accident.

Statement: The official's argument is actively weakened by the new finding that the total number of car accidents in the city also increased by exactly 15 percent over the past year.

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Cevap

False. The provided statement does not weaken the argument; rather, it actively strengthens it.
The correct answer is false because the proposed finding proves that the rate of severe injuries per accident remained identical to the previous year. If the severity rate remains static despite seatbelt usage doubling, this strongly corroborates the official's conclusion that seatbelts do not reduce the risk of severe injury. Since it strengthens the argument, the assertion that it weakens the argument is false.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the official's reasoning
The official concludes seatbelts are ineffective because absolute injury numbers rose despite increased seatbelt usage.
To identify the logical gap between the premise (absolute numbers) and the conclusion (individual risk or rate).
2
Evaluate the proposed new finding
The finding states that total accidents increased by the exact same percentage (15 percent) as total severe injuries.
To determine how this new contextual fact alters the relationship between the premises and the conclusion.
3
Calculate the impact on injury rates
A parallel 15 percent increase in both accidents and injuries means the proportion of accidents resulting in severe injury remained perfectly static.
To translate absolute numbers back into the risk/rate referenced in the conclusion.
4
Determine the logical effect on the argument
A static injury rate in a population where seatbelt usage doubled proves the seatbelts had no statistical impact, thereby supporting the official's claim.
To accurately conclude that the finding strengthens the argument, meaning the statement that it 'weakens' the argument is false.

Anahtar Kavram

Understanding the difference between absolute numerical totals and proportional rates, and recognizing how explaining a numerical increase can inadvertently strengthen an argument's conclusion.
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