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Zorluk: Çok zorPercentages vs. Numbers Flaws

Transportation Official: Three years ago, our city implemented an automated traffic enforcement system. Since then, the total number of citations issued for all traffic violations has dropped by 40 percent. However, over the same period, the percentage of all traffic accidents on our highways in which excessive speed was cited as the primary cause has surged from 15 percent to 35 percent. This clearly demonstrates that, despite the drop in citations, there is currently a higher total number of high-speed accidents occurring on our highways than there was three years ago.

Which of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the transportation official's reasoning?

  1. draws a conclusion about the absolute frequency of a particular type of event based entirely on evidence concerning that event's proportional share of a broader categoryCevap
  2. B
    fails to consider the possibility that the introduction of the automated system and the subsequent change in accident demographics are correlated but not causally linked
  3. C
    takes for granted that an observed reduction in the total number of traffic citations issued guarantees a corresponding reduction in the total volume of highway accidents
  4. D
    infers that a characteristic must be true of the majority of highway accidents simply because the prevalence of that characteristic has more than doubled
  5. E
    misidentifies a premise detailing the statistical rise in the proportion of high-speed accidents as an intermediate conclusion supporting a broader claim about highway safety

Cevap

The correct answer states that the argument draws a conclusion about the absolute frequency of a particular type of event based entirely on evidence concerning that event's proportional share of a broader category.
The correct answer accurately describes the structural flaw: the official uses a rising percentage (15% to 35%) to definitively conclude that an absolute number (the total count of high-speed accidents) has increased. This requires the unstated and unjustified assumption that the overall total of highway accidents remained the same or increased.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion of the argument.
The official concludes that there is currently a higher total number of high-speed accidents occurring on the highways than there was three years ago.
This is the claim the official is attempting to prove using the provided statistics.
2
Identify the premise used to support the conclusion about high-speed accidents.
The premise is that the percentage of highway accidents in which excessive speed was cited surged from 15 percent to 35 percent.
This isolates the logical jump the author is making.
3
Evaluate the logical gap between the premise and the conclusion.
The argument moves from a claim about a relative percentage (15% to 35%) to a claim about an absolute number. To determine the absolute number of high-speed accidents, one must know the total number of all highway accidents, which is missing from the stimulus.
If the total number of highway accidents dropped drastically, 35% of the new, smaller total could actually be fewer total high-speed accidents than 15% of the old, larger total.
4
Select the option that matches this structural error.
The correct option points out the conflation of a proportion (percentage) with an absolute frequency (number).
This directly describes the Percentages vs. Numbers Flaw present in the stimulus.

Anahtar Kavram

Percentages vs. Numbers Flaws occur when an argument treats information about proportions (percentages, fractions) as if it guarantees information about absolute quantities (numbers, totals), failing to account for potential changes in the overall baseline population.
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Percentages vs. Numbers Flaws

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