Identify the specific logical gap present in each scenario by pairing the causal argument with the unstated premise required for its conclusion to hold true.
- Seniors who frequently play complex strategic board games demonstrate higher cognitive retention. Therefore, playing these games prevents cognitive decline.Rules out the possibility that the purported effect is actually responsible for generating the purported cause.
- After the national park banned off-road vehicles, the endangered spotted owl population recovered. Thus, vehicle noise was previously suppressing the owl population.Rules out the possibility that an entirely different, concurrent event is independently responsible for the observed outcome.
- A survey reveals a strong correlation between a startup's investment in ergonomic office furniture and its employees' reported job satisfaction. Consequently, comfortable furniture directly increases employee happiness.Rules out the possibility that a third, unstated variable is independently responsible for causing both of the correlated phenomena.
Cevap
The board games argument assumes no reverse causation; the national park argument assumes no alternate concurrent event caused the outcome; and the office furniture argument assumes no third factor caused both correlated elements.
Each causal argument leaves a specific logical gap that must be bridged by an assumption. The board games argument is vulnerable to reverse causation. The park argument is vulnerable to an alternate independent cause occurring simultaneously. The furniture argument is vulnerable to a third variable causing both observed elements.
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Anahtar Kavram
Assumptions in Causal Arguments