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Zorluk: ZorWeaken

Wildlife Biologist: To prevent the spread of a fungal pathogen among endangered cave bats, conservationists installed heated artificial roosts in several winter hibernacula. Because the pathogen cannot survive temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius, the heated roosts successfully prevented fungal colonization on the bats occupying them. Nevertheless, bats utilizing the heated roosts suffered higher winter mortality rates than bats hibernating in unheated, fungus-free caves. Therefore, some environmental hazard inherent to the heated roosts is responsible for the elevated mortality.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the wildlife biologist's argument?

  1. A
    Materials used to construct the heating elements emit low-level fumes that can irritate the respiratory tracts of hibernating mammals.
  2. B
    The fungal pathogen frequently colonizes hibernacula maintained at temperatures well above 18 degrees Celsius.
  3. Bats that enter hibernation with depleted fat reserves and severe physiological stress actively seek out warmer microclimates.Cevap
  4. D
    The total population of brown bats in regions without heated roosts has steadily declined over the past five years.
  5. E
    Artificial hibernacula can never replicate all of the microclimatic conditions found in natural cave systems.

Cevap

Bats that enter hibernation with depleted fat reserves and severe physiological stress actively seek out warmer microclimates.
The correct answer weakens the argument by introducing an alternate cause rooted in selection bias. If bats that are already in critical metabolic distress preferentially seek warmer roosts, their higher mortality rate is a consequence of their prior health condition rather than an environmental hazard inherent to the heated roosts.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Isolate the argument's premises and main conclusion.
Premise: Bats in heated roosts avoided fungal colonization but had higher winter mortality than bats in unheated fungus-free caves. Conclusion: An environmental hazard inherent to the heated roosts caused the higher mortality.
Identifying the exact gap between the observed correlation and the causal conclusion is necessary to determine what would weaken the inference.
2
Identify the unstated assumption in the causal reasoning.
The biologist assumes that the bats using the heated roosts and those using unheated caves were comparable in health and survival probability prior to entering their respective hibernacula.
Causal claims based on group comparisons are vulnerable to selection bias and confounding baseline differences.
3
Select the statement that provides an alternative explanation for the mortality difference.
If stressed, malnourished bats selectively enter heated roosts, their pre-existing weakness accounts for the elevated mortality, eliminating the need to posit a hazard inherent to the roosts.
Demonstrating that the outcome was driven by self-selection rather than the roost environment directly undermines the causal conclusion.

Anahtar Kavram

Causal Reasoning and Selection Bias
Tahmini Süre:1m 30s
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