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Zorluk: ZorWeaken

Transportation Analyst: Last year, the city implemented a variable congestion charge for vehicles entering the central business district (CBD) during peak hours. The stated goal was to reduce the total amount of time commuters spend stuck in traffic citywide. Since the charge was introduced, the average speed of vehicles traveling within the CBD during peak hours has increased by 20 percent, and the number of vehicles entering the CBD has dropped by 30,000 per day. Therefore, the congestion charge has successfully achieved its goal.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the transportation analyst's argument?

  1. A
    Cities of similar size and layout that recently implemented identical congestion charges also reported a lasting decrease in citywide traffic congestion.
  2. In order to avoid the new charge, tens of thousands of commuters now take circuitous routes on smaller suburban roads, causing severe citywide gridlock that has significantly increased average daily commute times.Cevap
  3. C
    Faulty sensors at several CBD entry points have systematically undercounted passing cars, meaning the actual reduction in vehicles entering the district is much less than 30,000.
  4. D
    The variable congestion charge has faced intense opposition from retail business owners in the CBD, who report a 15 percent drop in customer foot traffic.
  5. E
    The percentage of total city traffic that originates and terminates within the CBD is smaller than the percentage of traffic that never enters the CBD at all.

Cevap

The option stating that commuters now take circuitous routes on suburban roads, causing severe gridlock and increasing average commute times.
The correct answer directly attacks the core assumption of the argument by showing that localized improvements (less traffic in the CBD) came at the expense of the larger system (suburban roads). By demonstrating that overall commute times actually increased, it destroys the conclusion that the policy achieved its goal of reducing citywide traffic time.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that the congestion charge successfully achieved its goal of reducing the total amount of time commuters spend stuck in traffic citywide.
Understanding the exact scope of the conclusion is required to evaluate what would undermine it.
2
Identify the premises supporting the conclusion.
The premises state that inside the CBD, average speeds have increased and the number of vehicles has dropped.
Identifying the premises reveals the evidence the author relies upon.
3
Find the logical gap between the premises and the conclusion.
The gap is the assumption that reduced traffic specifically within the CBD directly translates to reduced traffic time citywide.
This is a scope shift (part-to-whole flaw). Improvements in one specific zone do not guarantee citywide improvements.
4
Evaluate the answer choices to find the one that exploits this gap.
The correct option shows that avoiding the CBD shifted the traffic to suburban roads, worsening overall commute times citywide.
This directly severs the link between the premise (CBD improved) and the conclusion (citywide traffic improved).

Anahtar Kavram

Scope Shift (Part-to-Whole) and Alternate Effects
Tahmini Süre:2m 0s
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