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Zorluk: OrtaStrengthen

Each of the arguments below arrives at a causal conclusion based on an observed correlation or trend. Match each argument with the evidentiary statement that most strongly strengthens its conclusion by ruling out a key rival hypothesis.

  • Paleoclimatologists detected a sharp spike in micro-charcoal particles in Andean ice cores dating to the late sixth century. They concluded that widespread agricultural burning by the Tiwanaku civilization caused this atmospheric particulate peak.Regional lake sediment analyses show that natural wildfire frequency and regional drought intensity did not increase during the late sixth century.
  • Marine biologists recorded a steady rise in the pitch and volume of beluga whale contact calls in a busy shipping estuary over five years. They concluded that the whales altered their vocal acoustics specifically to overcome masking noise from commercial ships.Beluga whale pods inhabiting quiet, vessel-free fjords with identical water salinity, temperature, and age distributions showed no change in vocal call characteristics over the same five-year period.
  • Corporate auditors using newly introduced automated risk-flagging software approved significantly more non-compliant transactions during the final two hours of their shifts than during early hours. Researchers concluded that interaction with the software accelerated cognitive fatigue.Auditors working identical shift lengths while conducting conventional manual ledger reviews showed no measurable increase in non-compliant approval rates during late shift hours.

Cevap

Argument 1 (Tiwanaku agricultural burning) matches the regional lake sediment finding ruling out natural wildfires; Argument 2 (Beluga whale acoustic shifts) matches the isolated fjord control group showing unchanged vocal patterns; Argument 3 (Auditor software fatigue) matches the manual review control group showing no late-shift error escalation.
Each correct pairing matches an argument with an empirical finding that eliminates an unstated confounding factor. For the Tiwanaku argument, ruling out natural wildfires and regional droughts establishes anthropogenic burning as the probable source of the micro-charcoal. For the beluga whale argument, observing stable vocal patterns in an unexposed control population confirms that shipping noise—rather than aging or water conditions—drove the acoustic adaptation. For the audit software argument, demonstrating that manual reviewers on identical shifts did not experience late-shift accuracy decline isolates the software tool as the driver of performance degradation.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze each argument's causal conclusion and identify its primary unstated gap or rival explanation.
Identified three distinct gaps: (1) charcoal could stem from natural wildfires; (2) vocal shifts could stem from demographic or environmental factors; (3) auditor errors could stem from standard end-of-shift tiredness independent of software.
Strengthening a causal claim requires finding evidence that rules out plausible alternative causes or provides a parallel control condition.
2
Evaluate the evidentiary statements to determine which finding eliminates each argument's specific alternative cause.
The sediment data eliminates the natural wildfire explanation for Argument 1; the vessel-free fjord population isolates shipping noise for Argument 2; the manual auditing baseline isolates the software interface for Argument 3.
Each correct match provides a valid control or eliminates a confounding variable directly tied to the corresponding argument.
3
Verify that no matched evidentiary statement introduces irrelevant scope or weakens any paired conclusion.
Each pair establishes a robust, non-overlapping causal strengthener.
Ensures full logical consistency across all pairs.

Anahtar Kavram

Strengthening Causal Claims via Control Groups and Alternative Hypothesis Elimination
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Konular

Strengthen

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