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Economist: A recent three-year study compared manufacturing firms that adopted automated inventory management software with firms that retained manual tracking systems. The automated firms experienced a 30 percent greater reduction in unscheduled assembly line shutdowns. The study's authors concluded that implementing automated inventory management directly causes reductions in assembly line shutdowns by preventing component shortages caused by manual record-keeping errors.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the study's conclusion?

  1. A
    The initial capital expense required to purchase and integrate automated inventory software exceeded the revenue recovered from reducing shutdown frequency.
  2. B
    A post-implementation audit revealed that component shortages caused by manual record-keeping errors were virtually nonexistent among the firms that converted to automation.
  3. The firms that invested in the automated software had concurrently overhauled their aging production machinery as part of a broader facility modernization initiative.Cevap
  4. D
    Most automated inventory software systems require periodic software updates and cannot completely eliminate every conceivable type of clerical error.
  5. E
    The automated firms did not actually experience a 30 percent reduction in assembly line shutdowns over the three-year period.

Cevap

The statement indicating that the firms investing in automated software simultaneously overhauled their production machinery as part of a broader modernization program.
The argument concludes that automated software was the direct cause of the decrease in shutdowns. The correct answer undermines this by introducing a confounding variable: these same firms modernized their mechanical equipment at the same time. This alternative factor provides an independent, plausible reason why line shutdowns decreased, thereby casting substantial doubt on the claim that the software was responsible.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the main conclusion and underlying evidence in the stimulus.
Evidence: Automated inventory firms had a 30 percent greater reduction in shutdowns than manual tracking firms. Conclusion: Automated software directly caused this reduction by eliminating manual record-keeping errors.
Deconstructing the argument isolates the causal claim from the empirical correlation.
2
Identify the reasoning gap in the causal claim.
The author assumes that no other confounding variable or alternative cause distinguishes the automated firms from the manual firms during the study period.
Causal conclusions based on observational group comparisons are vulnerable to unaddressed third variables.
3
Evaluate the answer choices to identify the option that supplies an alternative cause.
The choice showing that automated firms also overhauled aging production machinery accounts for the reduced shutdowns through improved mechanical reliability rather than inventory logging.
Providing a confounding factor directly undermines the validity of attributing the outcome exclusively to the software.

Anahtar Kavram

Alternative Explanations in Causal Arguments
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