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Zorluk: OrtaNecessary Assumption

Historian: In the twelfth century, King Athelstan issued a decree requiring all regional lords to pay their annual tribute in grain rather than in silver coin. Historical records indicate that within five years of this decree, the royal treasury's silver reserves had dropped by more than half. It is clear that the implementation of Athelstan's decree was responsible for the severe depletion of the royal silver reserves.

Which of the following are assumptions on which the historian’s argument depends? (Select all that apply)

  1. At least some regional lords complied with King Athelstan's decree by ceasing to pay their tribute in silver coin.Cevap
  2. The depletion of the silver reserves was not primarily due to a massive increase in the treasury's silver expenditures during those five years.Cevap
  3. C
    The royal treasury had absolutely no other sources of incoming silver besides the tribute paid by regional lords.
  4. D
    Whenever a monarch changes the required currency for tribute, the royal treasury experiences a severe depletion of its reserves.
  5. E
    Prior to the decree, the regional lords paid their annual tribute exclusively in silver coin rather than a mix of goods.

Cevap

The correct answers state that some lords complied with the decree, and that a massive increase in expenditures was not the primary cause of the depletion.
The correct choices identify the unstated premises required for the causal relationship to hold. First, for the decree to have an effect, it must have been obeyed to some degree (establishing the mechanism). Second, for the decree to be 'responsible' for the severe drop, other major potential causes—such as a sudden, massive increase in royal spending—must be ruled out. If either of these statements is logically negated, the historian's causal conclusion falls apart.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Identify the conclusion and the premises.
Conclusion: The decree caused the depletion of silver reserves. Premises: The decree required grain instead of silver; silver reserves dropped by more than half within five years.
Deconstructing the argument is the first step in evaluating assumptions.
2
Analyze the causal relationship.
The author observes a correlation in time (decree followed by depletion) and concludes causation.
Causal arguments inherently rely on specific assumptions regarding alternate causes and the mechanics of the cause itself.
3
Apply the Negation Test to candidate answers.
Negating the correct options destroys the argument: if no lords complied, the decree couldn't be the cause. If a massive increase in spending was the primary cause, the decree wasn't.
The Negation Test is the definitive method for confirming a necessary assumption.

Anahtar Kavram

Necessary Assumption in Causal Reasoning
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