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Zorluk: Çok zorNecessary Assumption

Climatologist: To halt the alarming retreat of the Solaria Glacier, engineers propose installing a vast network of reflective geo-blankets over the ice during the summer months. Since these blankets reflect 90 percent of incident solar radiation, their deployment will lower the surface temperature of the glacier sufficiently to prevent further seasonal melting.

Which of the following are assumptions upon which the climatologist's argument depends? (Select all that apply)

  1. The installation of the geo-blankets will not create a thermal insulating layer that traps geothermal heat sufficient to cause the glacier to melt.Cevap
  2. The seasonal melting of the Solaria Glacier is not driven entirely by heat sources that are unaffected by surface solar radiation.Cevap
  3. C
    Reflecting 90 percent of incident solar radiation is the only technologically feasible method to lower the glacier's surface temperature sufficiently.
  4. D
    Implementing the geo-blanket proposal will yield significant economic benefits by preserving the glacier as a local tourist attraction.
  5. E
    Reflective geo-blankets have successfully halted seasonal melting on other glaciers with similar surface ice compositions.

Cevap

The argument fundamentally depends on the assumptions that the blankets will not trap sufficient geothermal heat to cause melting, and that the melting is not entirely driven by heat sources unaffected by solar radiation.
Both correct choices serve as 'Defender' assumptions that protect the causal claim. If the blankets were to act as an insulating layer that traps enough geothermal heat to cause melting, the conclusion that the blankets prevent melting would fail. Similarly, if the glacier's melting were entirely driven by heat sources unaffected by solar radiation, then blocking solar radiation would not prevent the melting. Because the argument falls apart if either of these statements is false, both are logically necessary for the conclusion.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Analyze the core structure of the argument.
Premise: Geo-blankets reflect 90% of solar radiation. Conclusion: Deploying them will lower the surface temperature enough to prevent seasonal melting.
Isolating the causal claim is essential to spot unstated gaps in the reasoning.
2
Identify vulnerabilities in the causal relationship.
The argument assumes that blocking solar radiation alone is enough to stop the melting, ignoring other potential heat sources or unintended heating side effects caused by the blankets themselves.
Necessary assumptions often function as 'Defenders' that protect an argument against potential fatal flaws.
3
Apply the Negation Technique to test the candidate assumptions.
Negating the correct options reveals that if the blankets trap geothermal heat, or if solar radiation isn't a primary driver of the melting, the conclusion logically collapses.
The Negation Technique is the definitive test for validating a necessary assumption.

Anahtar Kavram

Necessary Assumption (Defender Pattern and Negation Test)
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Necessary Assumption

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