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Zorluk: OrtaMeasures of Disease Frequency

A state department of public health investigates an outbreak of a novel respiratory virus in a long-term care facility. On November 1, the facility houses 120 residents. Medical records indicate that 20 residents had previously contracted and recovered from the virus during a smaller wave in September, conferring confirmed immunity.

On November 5, an outbreak begins when a resident develops symptoms. Over the next 14 days, a total of 15 new cases of the virus are diagnosed among the residents. During this period, 3 of the newly infected residents die from respiratory failure.

Which of the following best represents the attack rate for the November outbreak among the residents?

  1. A
    3.0%3.0\%
  2. B
    12.5%12.5\%
  3. C
    14.3%14.3\%
  4. 15.0%15.0\%Cevap
  5. E
    20.0%20.0\%

Cevap

The attack rate is 15.0%15.0\%.
The correct answer accurately calculates the attack rate by identifying 15 new cases and dividing them by the 100 susceptible residents. The 20 residents with prior immunity are correctly subtracted from the total population of 120 to determine the true population at risk.

Adım Adım Çözüm

1
Determine the number of new cases during the outbreak period.
There are 15 new cases.
The numerator for an attack rate is the incident (new) cases occurring during the specified time period.
2
Calculate the population at risk at the beginning of the outbreak.
Total residents (120) - Immune residents (20) = 100 residents at risk.
The denominator for attack rate (a form of cumulative incidence) must only include susceptible individuals. Those who are already immune or already have the disease cannot become incident cases and must be excluded.
3
Calculate the attack rate.
15/100=0.1515 / 100 = 0.15 or 15.0%15.0\%.
Dividing the new cases by the susceptible population yields the proportion of the at-risk population that contracted the disease.

Anahtar Kavram

The attack rate is a specific type of cumulative incidence used during outbreaks, calculated by dividing the number of new cases by the total population at risk (excluding immune or non-susceptible individuals) at the beginning of the outbreak period.
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