Question

Difficulty: MediumComplementary Probability and At-Least-One Scenarios

A testing kit contains 88 electronic sensors, of which exactly 33 are uncalibrated and 55 are fully calibrated. If 33 sensors are chosen at random without replacement, what is the probability that at least 11 of the chosen sensors is uncalibrated?

  1. A
    528\frac{5}{28}
  2. B
    1528\frac{15}{28}
  3. 2328\frac{23}{28}Answer
  4. D
    5556\frac{55}{56}
  5. E
    387512\frac{387}{512}

Answer

The correct answer is 2328\frac{23}{28}.
To find the probability that at least one sensor is uncalibrated, calculate 1 minus the probability that no selected sensors are uncalibrated. Out of 8 sensors, there are (83)=56\binom{8}{3} = 56 ways to pick 3. The number of ways to pick 3 calibrated sensors from the 5 available is (53)=10\binom{5}{3} = 10. Thus, P(no uncalibrated)=1056=528P(\text{no uncalibrated}) = \frac{10}{56} = \frac{5}{28}. Subtracting this from 1 gives 1528=23281 - \frac{5}{28} = \frac{23}{28}.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Calculate the total number of ways to choose 3 sensors out of 8.
(83)=8×7×63×2×1=56\binom{8}{3} = \frac{8 \times 7 \times 6}{3 \times 2 \times 1} = 56 total outcomes.
Selection is made without replacement and order does not matter.
2
Calculate the complementary event: selecting 0 uncalibrated sensors (all 3 selected sensors are calibrated).
(53)=(52)=5×42×1=10\binom{5}{3} = \binom{5}{2} = \frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = 10 outcomes with all calibrated sensors.
There are 5 calibrated sensors available, and 3 must be selected from them.
3
Find the probability of the complementary event (no uncalibrated sensors selected).
P(no uncalibrated)=1056=528P(\text{no uncalibrated}) = \frac{10}{56} = \frac{5}{28}.
Divide the favorable outcomes for selecting all calibrated sensors by total possible outcomes.
4
Apply the complementary probability principle to find P(at least one uncalibrated)P(\text{at least one uncalibrated}).
P(at least one uncalibrated)=1P(no uncalibrated)=1528=2328P(\text{at least one uncalibrated}) = 1 - P(\text{no uncalibrated}) = 1 - \frac{5}{28} = \frac{23}{28}.
The sum of probabilities of complementary events is 1.

Key Concept

Complementary Probability: P(at least one X) = 1 - P(no X)
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