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Difficulty: HardStrengthening Arguments

Paleoclimatologists analyzing mineral deposits in a subterranean cave network near an ancient settlement observed a sharp drop in trace isotope ratios between 1200 BCE and 1150 BCE, a metric that correlates with regional rainfall. The researchers concluded that a severe drought caused the sudden abandonment of the settlement during this timeframe. Skeptical historians argue instead that the abandonment was driven by the simultaneous collapse of regional trade networks.

Which of the following statements, if true, provide additional support for the paleoclimatologists' conclusion? Select all that apply.

  1. Neighboring agricultural settlements that produced all their own food independently of regional trade networks were also suddenly abandoned during the same fifty-year window.Answer
  2. B
    Subterranean cisterns constructed within the settlement showed evidence of maintaining high water reserves throughout the period between 1200 BCE and 1150 BCE.
  3. Soil analysis of local farm plots reveals that crop yields fell to zero due to severe ground desiccation prior to any recorded decline in regional trade volume.Answer
  4. D
    Cave systems located several hundred miles away exhibited similar drops in trace isotope ratios during unrelated historical epochs.
  5. E
    The settlement's leaders were known to participate heavily in regional trade councils during periods of economic stability.

Answer

The statements confirming that non-trading neighboring settlements were also abandoned and that soil desiccation destroyed crops prior to trade declines both strengthen the paleoclimatologists' conclusion.
The correct selections strengthen the paleoclimatologists' argument in two distinct ways. The statement observing that non-trading neighboring settlements also suffered sudden collapse eliminates the competing hypothesis (trade network failure) as the sole driver of abandonment. The statement showing that soil desiccation destroyed local crops prior to any trade decline establishes that drought impacts preceded economic shifts, reinforcing the drought as the root cause.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the main conclusion and opposing argument in the passage.
Conclusion: Severe drought caused the settlement's abandonment. Opposing view: Collapse of regional trade networks caused the abandonment.
To strengthen a causal argument facing an alternative explanation, one must either bolster the primary cause or rule out the competing cause.
2
Evaluate statements for evidence that eliminates the alternative cause or validates the primary cause.
The statement about neighboring self-sufficient settlements demonstrates that abandonment occurred even when trade reliance was zero, ruling out trade collapse as the necessary cause. The statement about soil desiccation establishing agricultural failure before trade declines validates the chronological priority of the drought.
Eliminating alternative explanations and confirming temporal precedence are standard logical methods for strengthening a causal claim.
3
Eliminate options that weaken, provide out-of-scope details, or confuse temporal correlation.
The statement regarding intact cistern water reserves weakens the drought hypothesis. Statements regarding distant cave systems and trade council leadership are logically irrelevant.
Distractors often reverse the required logical direction or introduce non-probative contextual facts.

Key Concept

Strengthening Causal Arguments by Ruling Out Alternative Explanations and Establishing Temporal Precedence
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Topics

Strengthening Arguments

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