Question

Difficulty: HardCompound Events and Probability Laws

Two independent events AA and BB in a sample space satisfy P(A′)=25P(A') = \frac{2}{5} and P(A∪B)=710P(A \cup B) = \frac{7}{10}, where A′A' denotes the complement of event AA. What is the probability that exactly one of the two events occurs?

  1. 1120\frac{11}{20}Answer
  2. B
    710\frac{7}{10}
  3. C
    1720\frac{17}{20}
  4. D
    320\frac{3}{20}

Answer

1120\frac{11}{20}
First, find P(A)=1−25=35P(A) = 1 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5}. Since AA and BB are independent, P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B). Using the addition law P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A)P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(B), we substitute the values to get 710=35+P(B)(1−35)\frac{7}{10} = \frac{3}{5} + P(B)\left(1 - \frac{3}{5}\right), which gives P(B)=14P(B) = \frac{1}{4}. The probability of exactly one event occurring is P(A)P(B′)+P(A′)P(B)=35×34+25×14=1120P(A)P(B') + P(A')P(B) = \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{4} + \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{4} = \frac{11}{20}.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Calculate the probability of event A
P(A)=1−P(A′)=1−25=35P(A) = 1 - P(A') = 1 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5}
The sum of the probabilities of an event and its complement equals 1.
2
Apply the addition law for independent events to find P(B)
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A)P(B)  ⟹  710=35+P(B)(1−35)  ⟹  P(B)=14P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(B) \implies \frac{7}{10} = \frac{3}{5} + P(B)\left(1 - \frac{3}{5}\right) \implies P(B) = \frac{1}{4}
For independent events, the intersection probability is P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B).
3
Calculate the complement of event B
P(B′)=1−P(B)=1−14=34P(B') = 1 - P(B) = 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}
The complement of event B represents the event that B does not occur.
4
Compute the probability that exactly one event occurs
P(exactly one)=P(A∩B′)+P(A′∩B)=P(A)P(B′)+P(A′)P(B)=(35×34)+(25×14)=920+220=1120P(\text{exactly one}) = P(A \cap B') + P(A' \cap B) = P(A)P(B') + P(A')P(B) = \left(\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{3}{4}\right) + \left(\frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{4}\right) = \frac{9}{20} + \frac{2}{20} = \frac{11}{20}
The occurrence of exactly one event means either A occurs and B does not, or A does not occur and B occurs.

Key Concept

Compound Probability and Probability Laws for Independent Events
Estimated Time:2m 0s
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