Question

Difficulty: MediumFlaw in the Reasoning

Marine Biologist: For a coral reef restoration project in shallow tropical waters to succeed over the long term, the surrounding water temperatures must remain consistently below 30 degrees Celsius during summer months. Satellite telemetry records confirm that sea-surface temperatures around the newly established Marabella Reef sanctuary did not exceed 29 degrees Celsius at any point this past summer. Therefore, we can be certain that the Marabella Reef restoration project will achieve long-term success.

The argument's reasoning is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

  1. A
    attacks the professional integrity of the researchers overseeing the restoration rather than addressing their empirical findings
  2. B
    rejects the accuracy of the satellite telemetry records without providing alternative oceanographic data
  3. treats a condition that is required for the long-term success of the project as one that is sufficient to guarantee that successAnswer
  4. D
    confuses a statement that serves as an intermediate conclusion with the overall conclusion of the argument
  5. E
    infers that because water temperatures remained low during one summer, they will never rise above 30 degrees Celsius in any future decade

Answer

Treats a condition that is required for the long-term success of the project as one that is sufficient to guarantee that success
The biologist establishes that water temperature remaining below 30 degrees Celsius is necessary ('must remain') for long-term project success. However, fulfilling this necessary condition does not guarantee success, because other essential factors could fail. By concluding that success is certain solely because this prerequisite was met, the argument treats a necessary condition as a sufficient condition.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the premises and conclusion of the argument
Premise 1: Long-term success requires summer water temperatures to remain below 30 degrees Celsius. Premise 2: Summer water temperatures did not exceed 29 degrees Celsius. Conclusion: The restoration project will achieve long-term success.
Isolating the structural components of the stimulus clarifies the relationship between the supporting evidence and the final claim.
2
Analyze the conditional logic connecting the premise to the conclusion
Maintaining water temperatures below 30 degrees Celsius is framed as a necessary condition for success (Success → Temperature < 30°C).
The phrase 'for... to succeed... temperatures must remain' indicates necessity, not sufficiency.
3
Evaluate the logical gap between satisfying the necessary condition and guaranteeing the outcome
Satisfying a necessary requirement does not ensure that other necessary factors (such as coral disease prevention or adequate biodiversity) are present to guarantee success.
The conclusion commits the classical formal fallacy of treating a necessary condition as a sufficient one.

Key Concept

Necessary versus Sufficient Conditions
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