City Planner: Every municipality that successfully transitions to a zero-emissions public transit fleet within five years must upgrade its local electrical substations to handle high-capacity charging. City Council recently approved a comprehensive modernization plan that will fully upgrade all municipal substations within the next two years. Therefore, provided the substation upgrades are completed on schedule, the city is certain to successfully transition to a zero-emissions public transit fleet within five years.
Which one of the following most accurately describes the flaw in the city planner's reasoning?
- AIt presumes without justification that an outcome cannot occur simply because a single potential obstacle has been identified.
- BIt challenges the factual reliability of the timeline established by the city council for electrical infrastructure modernization.
- It treats a condition that is necessary for achieving a specific outcome as though it were sufficient to guarantee that outcome.Answer
- DIt rejects a claim on the grounds that the evidence supporting it relies on extreme and categorical language.
- EIt confuses an intermediate conclusion concerning substation modernization with the argument's final conclusion.
Answer
The argument is flawed because it treats a condition that is necessary for achieving a specific outcome as though it were sufficient to guarantee that outcome.
The first premise establishes that upgrading electrical substations is a necessary prerequisite for a five-year zero-emissions transit transition. The planner then infers that because this prerequisite will be met, the full transition is guaranteed to succeed. This improperly treats a necessary requirement as a sufficient guarantee, failing to account for other factors that might impede the transition (such as vehicle procurement, budget constraints, or driver training).
Step-by-Step Solution
Key Concept
Conditional Reasoning: Confusing Necessary and Sufficient Conditions
Estimated Time:1m 45s