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Question

Difficulty: MediumStrengthen

A specific species of crop-destroying beetle in Region X recently developed resistance to the primary pesticide used to control its numbers. In response, farmers introduced a new species of wasp that preys exclusively on these beetles. Since the introduction of the wasps, the beetle population in Region X has declined by 40 percent. Therefore, the introduction of the wasp must be responsible for the recent decline in the beetle population.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the argument?

  1. A
    An unusually harsh winter, which is known to be highly lethal to the beetles, struck Region X immediately after the wasps were introduced.
  2. In neighboring Region Y, where the pesticide-resistant beetles are present but the wasps were not introduced, the beetle population has not declined.Answer
  3. C
    The newly introduced wasps do not prey on any beneficial insects or pose a threat to the crops in Region X.
  4. D
    The beetles in Region X never actually developed resistance to the primary pesticide, contrary to the initial reports from the farmers.
  5. E
    Wasps are generally considered by agricultural experts to be a more natural and sustainable method of pest control than chemical pesticides.

Answer

The statement showing that in neighboring Region Y, where wasps were not introduced, the beetle population did not decline.
The argument concludes that the introduction of wasps caused the decline in the beetle population, basing this claim entirely on the fact that the decline happened after the wasps were introduced. This is a classic causal argument vulnerable to the possibility of coincidence or alternative causes. The correct answer strengthens the argument by providing a comparative control group (Region Y). By establishing that the beetle population did not decline in a similar region where the wasps were not introduced, it significantly increases the probability that the wasps were indeed the cause of the decline in Region X.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Identify the main conclusion of the argument.
The conclusion is that the introduction of the wasp is responsible for the recent decline in the beetle population.
Understanding the exact claim being made is necessary to know what evidence would strengthen it.
2
Identify the premises supporting the conclusion.
The premises are that wasps were introduced and subsequently the beetle population declined by 40 percent.
Isolating the provided evidence highlights how the author arrived at the conclusion.
3
Identify the logical gap or flaw in the reasoning.
The argument assumes a causal relationship based solely on a chronological correlation. It fails to rule out other potential causes for the decline.
Recognizing the vulnerability of causal arguments dictates the strategy for strengthening them.
4
Evaluate the options to find one that supports the causal relationship.
The option describing Region Y acts as a control group, demonstrating that where the cause (wasps) is absent, the effect (beetle decline) is also absent.
Showing a 'cause-without-effect control' directly bolsters the likelihood that the initial correlation was indeed causal.

Key Concept

Strengthening causal arguments by ruling out alternative explanations or demonstrating a cause-without-effect control scenario.
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