Below are four excerpts from public policy and economic debates. For each argument on the left, identify the single factual statement on the right that, if true, would pose the most severe logical challenge to the speaker's conclusion.
- Mayor: Following the implementation of our new enterprise zone policies, which offer tax abatements to manufacturing firms relocating to the city, the commercial vacancy rate in the industrial district plummeted. It is evident that the tax abatements successfully stimulated the local industrial real estate market.Shortly before the vacancy rates dropped, a massive modernization of the city's deep-water port was completed, suddenly making the adjacent industrial district highly desirable for international shipping logistics.
- Transit Advocate: Constructing a dedicated bus rapid transit (BRT) lane along the main northern arterial road will certainly alleviate current traffic bottlenecks. The BRT lane will run directly parallel to the most congested route, offering an efficient commuting alternative for the 40,000 drivers who use that road daily.Surveys indicate that over 80% of the commuters utilizing the northern arterial route are tradespeople and delivery personnel whose daily work requires them to transport bulky equipment in their personal vehicles.
- Financial Advisor: Data from the past decade shows that start-up tech companies are twice as likely to fold within their first three years as start-up hospitality businesses. Therefore, investors seeking to minimize their overall financial exposure should prioritize funding hospitality start-ups over tech start-ups.In the event of a business closure, tech start-ups frequently liquidate their software patents to refund their backers, while failing hospitality businesses are typically burdened with depreciated physical assets that leave backers with total losses.
- Environmental Critic: The municipal ban on single-use plastic bags has clearly failed to achieve its primary goal of reducing the total amount of non-biodegradable waste generated by residents. According to the city's own sanitation records, the total tonnage of non-biodegradable waste collected last year was 5% higher than the year before the ban took effect.In the time since the bag ban was enacted, a major redrawing of municipal boundaries incorporated two adjacent, highly populated townships into the city's daily waste collection grid.
Answer
Mayor matches with the port modernization; Transit Advocate matches with tradespeople needing vehicles; Financial Advisor matches with asset liquidation differences; Environmental Critic matches with municipal boundary expansion.
Each correct pairing links a specific logical flaw in the speaker's argument to a factual statement that perfectly exploits that gap. The Mayor's causal flaw is attacked by an alternate cause (the port). The Transit Advocate's assumption of feasibility is attacked by a practical barrier (need to haul equipment). The Financial Advisor's equivocation is attacked by separating failure rate from financial loss magnitude. The Environmental Critic's use of raw numbers is attacked by shifting the baseline population.
Step-by-Step Solution
Key Concept
Identifying and exploiting specific structural flaws in logical arguments, including causal leaps, unstated assumptions of feasibility, term equivocation, and number vs. percentage errors.