Question

Difficulty: HardFlaw in the Reasoning

Economist: An economy can achieve sustainable long-term wage growth only if labor productivity increases across both manufacturing and service sectors. Over the past five years in Country X, total capital investment in workplace automation and technical retraining surged significantly, leading to measurable productivity gains in all major industrial and service domains. Therefore, Country X is guaranteed to experience sustainable long-term wage growth over the coming decade.

The economist's reasoning is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

  1. A
    takes for granted that the methods used to measure productivity gains in Country X are completely accurate
  2. B
    presumes without justification that an increase in workplace automation will invariably eliminate employment opportunities in the manufacturing sector
  3. treats a condition that is necessary for sustainable long-term wage growth as though it were sufficient to guarantee that growthAnswer
  4. D
    concludes that Country X will achieve economic growth solely from the fact that an intermediate goal has been partially attained
  5. E
    fails to establish that Country X's past capital investments will not produce adverse side effects in unrelated industries

Answer

The argument is flawed because it treats a condition that is necessary for sustainable long-term wage growth as if it were sufficient to guarantee that growth.
The economist states that productivity growth is a required condition ('only if') for sustainable wage growth. Demonstrating that this requirement has been met does not guarantee the result, because other conditions might also be necessary. Inferring that the outcome is certain commits the classic logical error of treating a necessary condition as a sufficient one.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the conditional logic in the first premise
The phrase 'only if' introduces a necessary condition: Sustainable Wage Growth → Productivity Gains Across Sectors.
Identifying the formal structure of the rule is essential to evaluating whether the conclusion is validly drawn.
2
Evaluate the second premise and the conclusion
The second premise states that productivity gains across both sectors have occurred (the necessary condition is met). The conclusion asserts that sustainable wage growth is guaranteed.
Determining how the factual evidence aligns with the conditional rule reveals whether the argument commits a conditional fallacy.
3
Identify the logical flaw
Meeting a necessary requirement does not guarantee the outcome; other factors could still prevent wage growth.
The author commits the error of confusing necessary and sufficient conditions (affirming the consequent).

Key Concept

Flaw in the Reasoning: Confusing Necessary and Sufficient Conditions
Estimated Time:1m 30s
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