Mayor: Over the past five years, the number of community gardens in our city has doubled. During this exact same time period, the city's crime rate has dropped by 15 percent. Therefore, it is clear that building more community gardens reduces crime.
The reasoning in the mayor's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument...
- presumes, without providing justification, that a correlation between two events implies that one causes the other.Answer
- Binappropriately infers a change in the absolute number of crimes from a stated percentage drop.
- Ctreats a condition that is merely sufficient to reduce crime as one that is strictly necessary to reduce crime.
- Dtrades on an ambiguity in the meaning of the phrase 'community gardens' over the course of the argument.
- Eassumes that what is true of the city as a whole must be true of each individual neighborhood containing a community garden.
Answer
The argument presumes, without providing justification, that a correlation between two events implies that one causes the other.
The correct answer accurately describes the classic 'correlation implies causation' fallacy. The mayor observes two simultaneous trends over a five-year period—an increase in community gardens and a decrease in crime—and improperly concludes that the first trend directly caused the second, ignoring other potential variables that could have reduced crime.
Step-by-Step Solution
Key Concept
Correlation vs. Causation