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Difficulty: HardAssumptions in Causal Arguments

Match each causal argument with the specific category of assumption required for its conclusion to logically follow.

  • In the decade after Valoria adopted a standardized national curriculum, test scores nationwide increased by 15%. Therefore, the new curriculum directly improved student academic performance.Eliminating the possibility that an alternate cause is responsible for the observed effect.
  • Surveys indicate that individuals who regularly engage in vigorous physical exercise report significantly fewer symptoms of depression. Clearly, vigorous exercise prevents depressive symptoms.Assuming that the causal relationship is not actually the reverse of what is claimed in the conclusion.
  • An analysis of public records shows that municipalities with the highest number of public parks also boast the highest average life expectancies. This demonstrates that access to public parks extends human lifespan.Assuming that some third, independent variable is not responsible for both of the correlated phenomena.
  • A consumer group concluded that Brand X's new smartphone battery drains 30% faster than average, based entirely on the complaints submitted to their online forum over the past month. The new battery is therefore fundamentally flawed in its design.Assuming that the sample from which the correlation was derived is representative and free of selection bias.

Answer

The curriculum argument matches with eliminating alternate causes. The exercise argument matches with ruling out reverse causation. The public parks argument matches with assuming no third independent variable. The battery argument matches with assuming sample representativeness.
Each pairing correctly addresses the specific logical gap in the causal argument. The curriculum argument requires eliminating alternate historical causes. The exercise argument must rule out reverse causation. The parks argument must eliminate a common underlying cause. The battery argument must defend its biased sample.

Step-by-Step Solution

1
Analyze the first argument regarding Valoria's curriculum and test scores.
Identifies that a chronological sequence (curriculum introduced, then scores increased) is used to establish direct causation.
To determine the required assumption, which in chronological causal arguments is typically the elimination of alternate concurrent causes.
2
Analyze the second argument regarding exercise and depression.
Identifies a correlation where the cause and effect could easily be swapped (does exercise prevent depression, or does depression prevent exercise?).
To recognize the classic vulnerability of reverse causation in correlational arguments involving human behavior and psychology.
3
Analyze the third argument regarding public parks and life expectancy.
Identifies a correlation between two phenomena that are likely byproducts of a shared demographic characteristic, such as high socioeconomic status.
To spot the flaw of ignoring a third, independent underlying factor causing both elements of the correlation.
4
Analyze the fourth argument regarding battery complaints.
Identifies that the evidence is drawn exclusively from an online complaint forum, which inherently attracts users experiencing problems.
To highlight a biased sample error, where the assumption must defend the representativeness of the data used to claim the causal flaw.

Key Concept

Assumptions in Causal Arguments
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Assumptions in Causal Arguments

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